742
FXUS63 KARX 061730
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
DRIER, COOLER THROUGH SATURDAY, SEASONABLE SUNDAY
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AND WE STAY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS, SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME AS A
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH IT COMES COLDER AIR
THAT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THE HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO MAINLY TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES FOR BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES). HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA JUST AS
QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED. FOLLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING LOW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 15%
BASED ON LREF), FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94. ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS,
SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AND BRINGS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
WILL HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
NEXT WEEK: WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK
AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD
USHERING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT,
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NBM RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 05.12Z EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
SUPPORTS THIS WITH SOME PROBABILITIES (50-70%) FOR MUCH WARMER THAN
EC CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL REMAIN FAIRLY
FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS. BY MID-WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGES WEAKENS WITH ZONAL FLOW BEING RE-ESTABLISHED. CONSEQUENTLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SOMEWHAT MID-WEEK WITH MEDIAN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE NBM.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONCERNED NEXT WEEK,
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRY TO BRING VARIOUS SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN HOW ANY FEATURE WOULD MANIFEST DURING
THIS TIME RANGE IS LOW AS THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN) ONLY
HAS BROAD BRUSHED 30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, THINKING THE NBM PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OF AROUND 15-
30% DURING THIS PERIOD ARE FEASIBLE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY CLEAR OUT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF AN EAU TO MFI LINE STAYING VFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE
(30-50%). NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20G20-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
INCREASING FROM THE SSE SATURDAY MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA/NAYLOR
AVIATION...SKOW
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