650
FXUS63 KARX 062328
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
528 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TO START THE WEEKEND, WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S!
- A NEARLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE (10-20%) IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
TONIGHT - SATURDAY: COLD START TO THE WEEKEND
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON A
10-20G20-30KT NNW WIND AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
WINDS LESSENING AS A 1035-MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL APPROACHES FROM
MANITOBA. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT IN MOST LOCALES, COUPLED WITH
THIS POLAR AIR, LIGHT WINDS, AND SNOW PACK SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO,
COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 IN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, SOME
SOLUTIONS HINT AT CLOUDS LINGERING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 AND
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED UNDER THESE CLOUDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WAA INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID-20S, THE COLDEST HIGHS WE SEE FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: PASSING SHOT OF SNOW
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A 700-MB WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK OF OUR UPSTREAM RIDGE. A TRANSIENT FGEN BANNER WITHIN THIS
ASCENT SLIDES ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. COUPLED
WITH THE DRIER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILES, THE INTENSITY AND
SPATIAL FOOTPRINT OF ANY SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED. THEREFORE, IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 1/2" OR LESS BEFORE THE FORCING DEPARTS LATER IN THE
NIGHT.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: WARM!
A BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOLID SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (+10-12C AT 900-850
MB) WORKING N/NE FROM THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS. EXACTLY FAR
NORTH THE WARM FRONT/AIRMASS ADVANCES ON MONDAY HINGES ON CLOUD
COVER AND THE INFLUENCE OF OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK, BUT THE
ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTIONS ARE STRONGLY CLUSTERED IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID-40S WITH SOME OF THE UPPER 10TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS
PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON TUESDAY
AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN SOME NON-DIURNAL ASPECT TO
TEMPERATURES, BUT WHERE AND HOW MUCH IS NOT KNOWN.
MID TO LATE WEEK: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS, MAYBE SOME PRECIP?
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, ASSURING US THAT AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES (30S FOR HIGHS) REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND
SUBTLETIES IN ANY WAVES THAT PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND HOW
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA BEHAVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW (<5%) ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SHOW AN
APPRECIABLE WINTER STORM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THESE
ARE THE FAR END OF THE ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION AND NEARLY 50% OF
THE MEMBERS HAVE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND AND EVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE
IS A SIGNAL IN THE LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES OF EVEN WARMER
WEATHER, BUT MUCH CAN CHANGE AT THIS RANGE IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR SATURDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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