579
FXUS63 KARX 071733
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THEN UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MONDAY
HAVING THE WARMEST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S!
- MOSTLY DRY FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCE (20 TO
35%) OCCURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY: COOLER TODAY, LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SOME
A SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND AS
IT DOES, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WHILE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WHILE CAMS
HAVE SHOWN LOW REFLECTIVITY VALUES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY, LIMITING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
AS THE WAVE COMES IN THIS EVENING. SATURATION INCREASES AT THE LOW
LEVELS ENOUGH TO BRING MENTIONABLE POPS (15 TO 20%) FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94. BETWEEN I-90 AND I-94 HAVE GONE AHEAD PUT A LOW
CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL FORCING BUT QUITE DRY
LOW LEVELS, SO IT WILL BE A MATTER OF IF THE FORCING CAN HELP THE
ATMOSPHERE SQUEAK OUT A COUPLE FLURRIES. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-94, UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE
CONTINUED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY, LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S AND
HIGHS ON SUNDAY RETURN TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: WARM UP!
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH 950MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 6 TO 10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMING INTO THE AREA, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP
TO 50F, A 15 TO 25% CHANCE, IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FRONT WILL BE. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER
FRONT WHICH THEREFORE KEEPS OUR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MUCH COOLER
THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF WHICH SUPPORT A WEAKER FRONT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS POTENTIALLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
THAT BRINGS ENERGY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SNOW FOR TAYLOR COUNTY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS ENERGY GETS, SO POPS REMAIN BELOW 10%.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION?
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS WHEN AND WHERE WE MAY SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY
MIDWEEK A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST, HOWEVER EXACT LOCATION AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AS IT COMPACTS THE WAVE BEFORE SHIFTING
IT OFF TO THE EAST, COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH HAS A MORE TRANSIENT
WAVE. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE WELL REPRESENTED IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FOR BOTH AS ABOUT 70% OF EPS MEMBERS SHOW MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AND
ONLY 50% OF GEFS MEMBERS DO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
THE THIS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AS THIS IS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. ON SUNDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...CECAVA
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