667
FXUS63 KARX 072309
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
509 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. NO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT, MAY NEED
TO ADD SOME CHANCES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION IN WISCONSIN
FOR SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW. IF LIGHT SNOW OCCURS, NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND 20 TO 25 DEGREES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT
ON MONDAY NIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AS THIS OCCURS, THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE THERE WILL BE DEEPER SATURATION AND LIFT. THE
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS UP TO A 10
PERCENT ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AND FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29. IF PRECIPITATION DOES INDEED OCCUR, IT WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID-20S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND HOW FAR A
CANADIAN TROUGH WILL EXTEND WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
AFFECTS WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LOCATED. 71
PERCENT OF GRAND ENSEMBLE HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MEANWHILE, 29
PERCENT OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP WISCONSIN MAINLY
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID- AND UPPER TEENS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND
IN THE LOWER AND MID-20S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER STRATUS IN
THE FL040-060 RANGE WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE
RIVER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT IT'S UNSURE AS TO WHETHER THEY
WILL BE MORE BROKEN OR SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAVE LEFT IT
SCATTERED FOR NOW AS ITS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE BUT
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A MORE BROKEN MVFR DECK, LOWER
CIGS MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED AT KRST IN LATER PACKAGE
UPDATES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE FOR BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 8-15 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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