220
FXUS63 KARX 080925
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOW TO
MID 40S FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (25 TO 45%) RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY DRY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND LINGERS THROUGH
MONDAY. MID TO LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR GOOD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THESE NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS OWING TO THE WARMER AIR STAYING FURTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW WARM WE DO GET AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S (CENTRAL IOWA) AND LOW 40S
(NORTHEAST IOWA). THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES WHERE THE 10TH PERCENTILE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE CWA AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 40S. IF WE CAN GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S, THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE CWA SINCE JANUARY 13TH!
HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING A SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS WITH IT A
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LARGELY STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA,
HOWEVER LOOKING AT SOME HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS IN MEDFORD, THERE IS A
SMALL WINDOW WHERE PRECIPITATION, MORE THAN LIKELY SNOW, COULD OCCUR
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS LITTLE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH, UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER AND A SURFACE HIGH COMES
OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP US DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND HELP TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MORE ACTIVE PATTERN?
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THIS WEEK PAN OUT. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHEN COMPARING THE EPS WITH THE
GEFS, THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (60 TO
95%) WHEREAS THE GEFS HAS A 40 TO 70% CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE GFS SHOWS A LOW COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WHICH
IN TURN KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THIS LOW, HOWEVER IT IS A
DAY LATER, SO NO PHASING OCCURS. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS THAT AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS AROUND A 60% CHANCE THAT
WE ARE BACK UNDER A RIDGE AND A 40% CHANCE THAT OUR AREA IS UNDER A
TROUGH. PAST THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THESE SAME CLUSTERS
SHOW US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHEN LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS HAVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE WISE, NBM
DOES HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WHICH IS STILL 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER STRATUS IN
FL040-080 RANGE WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE S/SE FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 8-15 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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