729
FXUS63 KARX 091732
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1132 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES LARGELY STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME
LOW 40S POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES TODAY
(20 TO 35%) WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (30 TO 50%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK:
WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY, WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15MPH, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AFTER
TODAY, ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD LOW 40S
MAY BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US,
HOWEVER THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AND LINGER IT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH KEEPS OUR TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF AND EPS WHICH HAVE A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER TROUGH WHICH HELPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE IS SEPARATED FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL/SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION STAYS CLOSER TO THAT LOW, HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE ONLY AREA IN OUR CWA THAT MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE TAYLOR COUNTY AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CLARK COUNTY. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS JUST BELOW
FREEZING, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT MOST OR
IF FREEZING RAIN HAPPENS THEN THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) THAT A
GLAZE OF ICE COULD OCCUR. ALSO, WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THEY ARE STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE (20 TO 35%) AS THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
DRY CONDITIONS TAKE OVER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THURSDAY IS THE NEXT CHANCE AT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30 TO 50%) AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS DOWN
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, THIS COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN AND THEN ENDING AS SNOW. IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND WHAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE. ONE THING THAT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING
IN CONFIDENCE IS THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, 0.01
INCHES, ACROSS THE CWA IN BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS WHERE BOTH ENSEMBLES
HAVE A 45 TO 85% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-94.
AFTER THURSDAY IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THEN SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING A LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF OUR CWA. COMPARE
THIS TO THE ENSEMBLES, WHERE THE MEAN GEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 15 AND 30% AND THE MEAN EPS IS 20
TO 40%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 09.04Z AND KLSE
AROUND 09.07Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, THE WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...CECAVA
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