390
FXUS63 KARX 100549
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY IN FAR NORTHERN
PERIPHERAL COUNTIES OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN (TAYLOR COUNTY)
TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (30-40%).
- PERSISTENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS FROM A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY
MAY AFFECT THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LOCALLY
IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
LIGHT SNOW & WINTRY MIX TONIGHT LOCALLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN:
AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO,
CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED INITIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN NORTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN (TAYLOR COUNTY). WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR SNOW
(60-80%) AS MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE, MEAGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE TRIPLE POINT CONCURRENT WITH LOBES OF ENTRAINED DRY AIR
RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITIES (20%) IN SPOTS. GIVEN
OVERALL LOWER (30-40%) CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE,
IN A NARROW SLICE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, OVERALL IMPACTS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEK:
SUBSEQUENT BUILDING HEIGHTS AND PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK STRUGGLES TO SHUNT NORTHWEST FLOW COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RESULTANT LREF/HREF
CONFIDENCE FOR LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO SPC RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. LREF CONFIDENCE
IN EXIT BEHAVIOR OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO LOCAL INTERACTION WITH
CENTRAL CONUS HIGHER PRESSURE DECREASES LATER IN THE WEEK,
CAUSING DISCREPANCIES FOR LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SNOWFALL CHANCES:
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AS A
WEAK OPEN WAVE PROGRESSES ALONG NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEFS (09.12Z) AND EPS (09.12Z)
BOTH STRENGTHENED MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN MOST RECENT
RUNS, RESULTING IN HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-90%) FOR 0.01" OF QPF
IN 24 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BESIDES
INTRAMODEL TREND DIFFERENCES, WITH AN INCREASE (DECREASE) IN THE
EPS (GEFS), LOCATION SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN INTERMODEL
DIFFERENCE. WHILE THE EPS KEEPS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN IOWA,
THE MORE NORTH GEFS PUSHED FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN MOST RECENT RUN
(09.12Z). PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF 10:1 SLR SNOWFALL IN 24 HOURS
IS 20-50% IN THE GEFS, AND <20% IN THE EPS; BOTH LOWER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO INTRAMODEL DISAGREEMENT IN EXACT LOCATION OF
MORE NARROW AREA OF HIGHER AMOUNT POTENTIAL. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE, ENSEMBLE PLUME
SOUNDS SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS MAIN PRECIPITATION
TYPES. CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUGGESTS IMPACTS TO BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
CLOSELY WATCHING AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MN WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR AREA, INCLUDING
RST/LSE. MANY OBS SHOW THIS STRATUS IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE,
SO HAVE KEPT MENTIONS IN THE TAFS AT 2 KFT. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS STRATUS. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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