407
FXUS63 KARX 101657
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1057 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 FOR THE WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TRENDING LOWER AND
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY WHERE THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE (30 TO 60%) AT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK:
ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
HOWEVER AT THE MID TO LOW LEVELS, ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94 AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EVERYWHERE ELSE. HEADING INTO THURSDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BRIEFLY RETURNS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A LITTLE CWA WIDE
WHERE LOW 40S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-94. BY FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, AND
WHILE THIS RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT COULD BE, WARM AIR FLOWS ALL
THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING US UP EVEN MORE. THIS
HAS BEEN A TREND IN BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS AND WHILE THE GEFS HAS
ALWAYS BEEN COOLER, OVER THE LAST 4 RUNS THE GEFS MEAN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAS INCREASED EACH RUN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKING AT THE GEFS AND EPS PROBABILITIES FOR 45F TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY, THE GEFS HAS A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE EPS HAS A 50 TO 95% CHANCE FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-94. EFI MAXT VALUES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE ALSO BETWEEN
0.6 AND 0.8 INDICATING THAT THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THE EPS ALSO HAS A 20 TO 35%
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 50F ON SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER!
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BY THURSDAY
MORNING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTERN PLAINS. OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS, THIS DISTURBANCE WAS LOOKING TO BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER THE PAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS FROM THE MID AND LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
HAS SHOWN A SOUTHWEST PUSH AWAY FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA AND MORE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MOST RECENT LREF GIVES A 30
TO 60% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER WAY TO SHOW HOW THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BY LOOKING AT THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WHICH IS ONLY 30 TO 40 % FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF I-90.
OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING WEAKER AND SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST.
WE SHALL SEE HOW THESE TRENDS HOLD UP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WHERE
ANOTHER WAVE AND A LOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES COULD HAVE
IMPACTED THE REGION, HOWEVER THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN THAT THE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, KEEPING US DRY. IF THIS
PATTERN HOLDS WHERE WE REMAIN DRY AND WARM FOR THE WEEKEND, IT COULD
VERY WELL BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT BY EVENING RESULTING IN CIGS
BECOMING FEW TO SCT. OVERALL PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY HIGH (50-80%)
IN BOTH THE HREF AND NBH FOR MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 22-00Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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