082
FXUS63 KARX 111730
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARM UP FROM TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 40S BY
THURSDAY.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FOR THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A 10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
9 IN IOWA. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARRIVES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOOKING AT WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THERE IS
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ALL 4 CLUSTERS THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, LARGELY IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S, ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THEY WILL
BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES UNTIL MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. BY FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-94.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS OF FORECASTS, THE TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUALLY
WARMED UP. EFI SIGNALS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR A FEW OF THE DAYS
TO WHERE STARTING ON SATURDAY, THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.7 AND
0.85, INDICATING THAT THESE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. ALSO, STARTING ON SUNDAY,
THERE IS A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 0 ACROSS THE CWA INDICATING THAT THERE
ARE A FEW OUTLIERS THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. THIS CAN BE SEEN
BY LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS WHERE
BY TUESDAY, AROUND 20% OF BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS HAVE TEMPERATURES OF
AT LEAST 60F AT LA CROSSE! SIMILARLY THERE ARE A LITTLE OVER 20% OF
EPS MEMBERS AND 30% OF GEFS MEMBERS THAT HAVE AT LEAST 60F AT
ROCHESTER FOR TUESDAY!
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT DIPS DOWN
INTO IOWA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONSISTENTLY TRENDED
DRIER AND WEAKER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO WHERE ONLY PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA HAVE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE AT ALL (10 TO 20%) FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 9. THE AMOUNT OF QPF HAS ALSO DROPPED AND THIS CAN BE SEEN
BY HOW THE HREF PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF QPF HAS
DROPPED TO ONLY 10 TO 20% FOR THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR, IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT NEAR 30F AT 12Z AND RISING INTO THE MID
30S BY MID MORNING.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
COMES NEXT TUESDAY AS BOTH THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUPPORT A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CURRENT LREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 55 AND 75% FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE THE
TREND IN THIS STORM BEING THAT IT IS ALMOST A WEEK AWAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...BOYNE
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