612
FXUS63 KARX 120533
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MANY OF THESE RECORDS WERE SET IN 1981.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THURSDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
IOWA ON THURSDAY. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE AMOUNT OF
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. AS A
RESULT, THE RAIN AND SNOW WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94,
AND IN THE LOWER AND MID-40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
WEEKEND
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE NORTHERN STREAM IS SEEING PRIMARILY RIDGING.
MEANWHILE, IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE DRY SIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94,
AND IN THE LOWER AND MID-50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE, LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID- TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94, AND IN THE LOWER
AND MID-30S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
500 MB RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THERE
IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND A 30 TO
40 PERCENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS A UP TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND A 15 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NAEFS, AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN
THE GEFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94, AND IN THE LOWER AND MID-50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID-30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND FROM THE MID-30S TO LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. MANY OF
THESE RECORDS WERE SET IN 1981.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS, INCLUDING LSE, MAY SEE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY IF A BREAK IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OCCURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ON THE INCREASE, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS CHANCE IS VERY
LOW (5%). OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
VARIABLE BUT WITH A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPING OVER TIME.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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