727
FXUS63 KARX 260000
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW POTENTIAL (10-30%) FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF I-90 THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
- A BAND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (40-60%) SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WAVER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
TODAY - THURSDAY: LOW SNOW POTENTIAL
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT.
A SUBTLE 700-500HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, SUPPORTING A BAND OF
850-600HPA FRONTOGENESIS OVER IOWA. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND
LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE, THE 25.15Z RAP DEPICTS THIS BAND
STAYING TO OUR SOUTHWEST, KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY
SNOWFALL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A FEW
FLAKES COULD (5-10%) DEVELOP FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST
IOWA IN A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW OCCURS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
SATURATING COLUMN TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY WHICH
COMBINED WITH UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ITSELF AS
WELL AS DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300-250HPA JET
CORE, COULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94 (10-30%). AMOUNTS WOULD BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. THERE IS SOME LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER THE
INITIAL SNOW NORTH OF I-94 AND AS FAR SOUTH AS I-90 AS SOME DRY
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT, LEADING TO A LOSS OF CLOUD ICE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO (< 10%) GIVEN A VERY
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER.
SATURDAY: SNOW BAND POTENTIAL
LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
DEPICT A NARROW SWATH OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE 700HPA FRONTOGENESIS BAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS STRONG FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH A SATURATED DGZ, BUT
OVERALL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR AMOUNTS.
DRY AIR BELOW 850HPA SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS MAY RESULT IN THE
SUBLIMATION OF DENDRITES FALLING INTO THE LAYER. THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS ARE IF THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND IS ABLE TO OVERPERFORM
IN THIS SCENARIO, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT DENDRITE CREATION TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER, OR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. IF
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS COME TO FRUITION, A SOLUTION WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BECOME FAVORED. MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITE
SUGGESTS 30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER, BUT FALL
OFF TO NEAR 0% ABOVE 3 INCHES. THE 25.13Z NBM HAS SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OWING TO SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS
IN THE EVENT OF OVERPERFORMANCE, SO WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THERE'S ALSO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THIS STRIPE
OF SNOW OCCURS DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS
BAND ULTIMATELY SETS-UP. THE 25.13Z NBM SUGGESTS AN AREA FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS FAVORED, PAINTING
40-60% PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE 25.06Z
EPS AND 25.12Z GEFS/AIGEFS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION, PAINTING A
VERY SIMILAR SPATIAL EXTENT, WITH THE GEFS TRENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE NBM SOLUTION IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. SO, AS OF RIGHT
NOW, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR MEASURABLE
SNOW ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THIS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD OR SOUTHWARD.
LATE THIS WEEK - WEEKEND: WAVERING TEMPERATURES
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OCCURS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES.
THE EXCEPTION IS FOR THOSE WITH A SNOWPACK, SPECIFICALLY
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATED TO THE MID 40S OWING TO THE SNOW'S HIGHER
ALBEDO AND THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS ON THE SURROUNDING
AIRMASS.
HOWEVER, THE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES DON'T LAST LONG. AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY EVENING, THE 25.00Z LREF DEPICTS A DRY COLD
FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION, SUPPORTING STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS, PLUNGING 925HPA
TEMPERATURES TO -10C TO -15C. AS SUCH, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
IN THE 20S AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THREATENS WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AND
AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES LIE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AFFECTING SMALLER
AIRPORTS AS WELL AS KRST TAF SITE. SMALLER AIRPORTS AND KLSE
THAT LIE IN RIVER VALLEYS MAY BE LESS AFFECTED BY LOWEST
CEILINGS GIVEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER IMPACTS FROM BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WITH FZDZ POSSIBLE
ALBEIT LOWER (30%) LIKELIHOOD GIVEN THICKNESS OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION. LIGHT SNOW CAUSING IFR VISIBILITIES AT SMALLER
AIRPORTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.
ERADICATION OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...JAR
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