084
FXUS63 KARX 262356
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
556 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A NARROW BAND OF SNOW TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN HOW NARROW THE BAND IS,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHERE EXACTLY THIS SNOW BAND ENDS UP AND
HOW MUCH SNOW A GIVEN LOCATION WILL GET.
- AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE 40S
FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY: DRY, WARMING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE AREA IS
UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER ALLOWING FOR GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GET
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH LOCATIONS THAT HAVE MINIMAL TO
NO SNOWPACK POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO THE MID 40S. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA AS A LOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS A RESULT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THESE WINDS CONTINUE AS A FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE WINDS THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MEAN LREF 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 2 AND 7
DEGREES C, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WE CAN MIX,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND THE WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER SNOWPACK MAY ONLY GET INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S.
SATURDAY: NARROW BAND OF SNOW
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, MOST OF THE REMAINING
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS DRIER AIR ENTERS THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS A BAND OF MID
TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC DATA CONTINUE TO
GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SNOW BAND ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THERE
ARE STILL SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND AND
GIVEN THAT THIS IS A FRONTOGENETIC BAND, IT WILL BE QUITE NARROW,
JUST A FEW COUNTIES WIDE, SO LOCATION OF THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO
WIGGLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, THIS MORNINGS
MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS OF A NARROW 1 TO 3" BAND OF SNOW, HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT PRODUCE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT THE HIGHER PERCENTILES OF THE NBM (75TH AND
90TH) SOME OF THESE TOTALS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5" RANGE. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND AND THE DGZ DEPTH OF
2500 TO 3000M, THESE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE. AS A
RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THE LOCATION IS
NARROWED DOWN.
SUNDAY: LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
WINDS SHIFT MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SNOW
CHANCE IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW AS THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE MORE IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW DRY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUT THE ECMWF HAS SECONDARY
FRONTOGENESIS BAND DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS RESULTS IN
LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA, SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WE SHALL SEE HOW THIS TRANSPIRES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE WHICH TRACK IS FAVORED.
NEXT WEEK: WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BY THE TIME MONDAY ARRIVES, THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL AID IN STORM TRACKS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH RATHER THAN LITTLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST POTENTIAL
STORM MIGHT BE MIDWEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
FAVOR A MORE ACTIVE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY SOUTH
OF I-90 AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP AND BY MIDWEEK
HIGHS LOOK TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET CAUSING TEMPORARY LLWS NEAR DAY BREAK BEFORE SURFACE WINDS
CAN MIX AND INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED
SHORT BOUT OF LLWS AT KRST FOR FRIDAY DAYBREAK WHILST SLIGHTLY
LONGER AT KLSE GIVEN SURFACE WIND TENDENCIES AT BOTH LOCATIONS.
SUFFICIENT MIXING THROUGH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS
AREA WIDE PROVIDING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE INSTEAD OF LLWS.
SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN INCREASED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NARROW BAND OF SNOWFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
SUBSEQUENT, POTENTIALLY MORE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD, AVIATION
IMPACTS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE PLACES WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE SNOW
FALLS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
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