737
FXUS63 KARX 280001
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BEFORE EXITING DURING THE EVENING. WHILE EXACT LOCATION OF
THIS BAND REMAINS UNCERTAIN, MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FAVOR
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90.
- SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE BAND ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
(60-80%) RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 6" POSSIBLE (10-30%). HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO START THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SATURDAY: BANDED SNOWFALL LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT LOCATION
HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH ANOTHER BANDED SNOWFALL FORECAST CONUNDRUM AS
THE RECENT HI-RES CAMS HAVE TAKEN A NORTHERN TRAJECTORY WITH THE
LOCATION OF THIS SNOWBAND AS COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS FORECAST IS VERY
TRICKY AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BAND REMAINS LOW.
CURRENTLY, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE FAVORS AREAS NEAR AND IN BETWEEN THE
I-90 TO I-94 CORRIDORS TO RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE CURRENT CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR THIS BAND FEATURES A
FAIRLY PROFOUND 700MB FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WHERE YOU HAVE A
STRONG COUPLED FRONTOGENETIC/FRONTOLYSIS SIGNAL THAT LAYS OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (AGAIN WHERE THIS OCCURS HAS
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY). IN THE RAP CONCEPTUAL MODEL,
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE NOTABLY INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AS IT
MORE SUCCESSFULLY TAPS INTO A PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AS A RESULT, THE MOISTURE ISSUES THAT THIS BAND
HAD BEEN CONTENDING WITH IN EARLIER GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE LESS
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW WHERE
THIS BAND DOES SET UP.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN A QUESTION AS BOTH UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND LINGERS. BASED ON THE SOUNDING
DATA IN THE RAP/HRRR/ARW, THERE IS FAIRLY RESPECTABLE DGZ
RESIDENCY WITHIN AREAS THAT SEE THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST
SNOW IN THE BAND WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-20:1 BEING
FEASIBLE, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETIC NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (60-80%) FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN THE RECENT NBM
WHERE THE BAND INEVITABLY SETS UP. GIVEN THE STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC/FRONTOLYSIS COUPLET IN THE RAP COMBINED WITH MORE
EFFICIENT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 4-6" AMOUNTS AS THE NBM HAS SOME
PROBABILITIES FOR AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES (20-40% CHANCE).
AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED, MUCH OF THE CAMS BRING THE INITIAL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND INTO SOUTHEAST MN BY DAYBREAK WITH A RAPID
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID-MORNING. SNOW RATES
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM PRECIPITATION ONSET FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE
RECENT HREF HAS A PROBABILITY FOOTPRINT FOR 1" PER HOUR RATES BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN BETWEEN THE I-
90 AND I-94 CORRIDORS WHERE THE ARW AND FV3 REALLY FOCUS WITH SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS TO THE NORTH FROM THE HRRR AND RAP. THANKFULLY THE
HEAVIEST RATES WILL LIKELY BE FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD, AROUND
2-4 HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST WITH DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
IN SUMMARY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LATEST HI-RES MODEL TRENDS
FAVORING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT FROM LAST WEEK'S BANDED
SNOWFALL EVENT AS SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE MORE DRY AND FLUFFY
THAN LAST WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, MOST AREAS SEEM MORE FAVORED TO
SEE AMOUNTS UNDER 6 INCHES AS TOTALS THAT EXCEED 6 INCHES WILL
LIKELY BE MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE (10% CHANCE AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION IN THE BAND). HOWEVER, SINCE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
BAND REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY UPDATED ON THE
FORECAST UP UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS TOMORROW MORNING AS CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATION MAY STILL OCCUR!
SUNDAY - TUESDAY: COLD SUNDAY, WARMING TREND TO START THE NEW WEEK
WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS WE GET PAST OUR BANDED SNOWFALL HEADACHE, NORTHWESTERLY 500MB
FLOW COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY, ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO REMAIN IN THE AREA WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER AS THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
THE EAST, MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
THAT MIGHT TRY TO CLIP AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE IT WOULD BE OVERLY
IMPACTFUL THOUGH AS MUCH OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
(GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) ONLY HAVING ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS
SURFACE FLOW TRENDS MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE
RANGE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE LOWER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S. WILL NEED TO WATCH ON TUESDAY HOW FAR NORTH A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE MAY REACH INTO OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF DIFFERENCES IN HOW STRONG AN UPSTREAM HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
MN/ND AND CANADA BORDER AND HOW THIS WOULD INFLUENCE ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. IN ANY CASE, PROBABILITIES IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
(GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) ARE LOW (20-30%) FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT
THIS JUNCTURE, SO REALLY DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
WEDNESDAY: MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
AS WE HEAD INTO MID-WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN TAKES A NOTABLE
CHANGE AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHIFT THE 500MB PATTERN FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY TREND MORE MILD AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE
INTER-QUARTILE SPREAD IN THE NBM RANGING THE LOWER 40S TO MIDDLE
50S, SO SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH THE NBM HAVING MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AS LONG-RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS GROWS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE RAIN
GIVEN THE WARMING TREND LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHILE STRONG SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS
TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY WEAKENING WHILE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AHEAD OF INCREASING
SNOWFALL CHANCES.
NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL REMAINS LIKELY FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
AND EXACT LOCATION REMAIN FORECAST DETAILS THAT REQUIRE FURTHER
IRONING OUT. WHILE CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
CAUSING IFR-VLIFR VISIBILITIES LIES JUST NORTH OF KLSE AND KRST
TAF SITES, WILL BE MAIN TAF CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
IAZ009>011.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...JAR
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