859
FXUS63 KARX 281116
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-80%) IN NARROW 2" TO 4" BAND OF
SNOW FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH TODAY. INITIAL, LIGHTER
SNOWFALL BAND GRAZES NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING AS SUBSEQUENT, INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
- SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF NARROW
BAND. CONFIDENCE IN EXTREME OUTLIERS OF 6"+ WITHIN THIS NARROW
BAND REMAINS LOW (30%) AS 1" TO 2" SNOWFALL RATES COULD
TRANSIENTLY OCCUR.
- COLDER END TO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIGHTER RADAR RETURNS THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA:
BAND OF NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST RADAR RETURNS SEEN FROM NORTH-
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH EASTERN INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EASTERN
PERIPHERAL RETURNS NEAREST TO THE FORECAST AREA APPROACHING
FLOYD COUNTY AS OF 08Z HAVEN'T YET OVERCOME LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 9-10 DEGREES THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA. OVERALL THIS ALIGNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR
AN INITIAL, LIGHTER, MORE SOUTHERN REACHING BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUBSEQUENT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
OBSERVATIONS & SUBSEQUENT LATE MORNING SNOWFALL BAND ON TRACK:
MUDDLED SURFACE CYCLONIC ROTATION SEEN OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA DRIVING SUBSEQUENT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SLOW
TO TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH,
DECREASED VISIBILITIES AND SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
THROUGH NORTHERN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL
OBSERVATIONS ON GOES DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK THAT WILL PROVIDE REQUIRED QUASIGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT
POKING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. THEREFORE, SNOWFALL FORECAST
TIMING MOSTLY REMAINS ON TRACK.
HOURLY FORECAST MODEL UPDATES & LOCATION CONFIDENCE:
WHILE THE PREVIOUS INTERMODEL OUTLIER HRRR FORECAST MODEL HAS
PERSISTED THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK (00Z) OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IN
MOST RECENT RUNS (06Z, 07Z), IN LINE WITH OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS, MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO BE A QUESTIONABLE FORECAST DETAIL TO KEEP
AN EYE ON. WHILE THE PREVIOUS (12Z, 18Z) NORTHERN TRACK WAS
MOSTLY DRIVEN BY A STRONGER SURFACE LOW SOLUTION, WEAKER RETURN
FLOW WILL CONTEND WITH VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AS CURRENT
(830Z) SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PUSHING 10 TO 20
DEGREES. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS, STILL EXPECT AND HAVE
CONTINUED MESSAGING A TIGHT GRADIENT ON /BOTH/ THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE BAND, BUT SHOULD THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE FLUX TO
WORK WITH, MAY WARRANT ADDITIONAL UPDATES FOR SOME HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SNOWFALL TIMING TODAY:
A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND EXITING THIS EVENING
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE,
RADAR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT NARROW BAND OF LIGHTER
SNOWFALL PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA - MINNESOTA
BORDER. THIS INITIAL BAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RESPONSIBLE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND IS THEORETICALLY
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS MORNING,
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF SLIGHTLY AMBIGUOUS SURFACE CYCLONIC ROTATION
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL BAND LOCATION:
FORTUNATELY, HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL CONSENSUS ON EXACT LOCATION
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST FEW RUNS. PREVIOUS OUTLYING HRRR FORECAST MODEL EXHIBITED
A SIGNIFICANT SHUNT SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THE 18Z AND 00Z RUNS,
ADVECTING 0.1" OF 6-HOUR QPF FORECASTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR IN JACKSON COUNTY, WISCONSIN TO THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR IN OLMSTED COUNTY, MINNESOTA. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR LOCATION OF HIGHER SNOWFALL BAND OF
2" TO 4" PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FLIRTING FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
VARIABILITY IN EXACT LOCATION OF NARROW AND RELATIVELY
TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS BAND PROVIDING HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES
CAUSES SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES REGARDING SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN
SNOW AND NO SNOW. FURTHERMORE, POTENTIAL COLLOCATION WITH 5K -
10K FT DGZ THICKNESSES FLIRTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH CONTINUE
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR POTENTIAL OUTLYING EXTREME VALUES
WITHIN THIS BAND.
OTHERWISE, MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS SLIGHT EXTENSION IN
PREEXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE FORCING FULLY
EXITS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED, AN AFD UPDATE IS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF
CYCLONIC FLOW FURTHER TAKES SHAPE AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW BANDS SET
UP. UPGRADES TO WARNINGS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED GIVEN FORECAST
CHALLENGE REGARDING POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLDER SUNDAY, MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 20S AREA WIDE. WHILE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING OVERALL CONFIDENCE
LOWER (30-50%) WITH A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN AND LOW LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.
LARGEST CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SOLUTION TO THE MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC
CYCLONE EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START
THE WEEK NEARLY DOUBLED NBM POPS OVER PREVIOUS RUN, NOW GRAZING
80% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, ENSEMBLE (27.12Z) SOUNDING PLUMES SUGGEST ALL
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WARM, MOIST OFF
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT TIMING PROVIDING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN THE LONGER
FORECAST HOUR AND NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MANY
DETAILS IN COMING FORECAST PACKAGES WILL REQUIRE IRONING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA IS SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN SHIFT
IN THE SNOW BAND THIS MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE BOTH THE TAF
SITES WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
INITIALLY MOVE INTO KRST AROUND OR AFTER 28/15Z AND INTO KLSE
AROUND OR AFTER 28/17Z. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO
4 INCHES AT KRST AND AND 2-3 INCHES AT KLSE. ONCE THE SNOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ009>011.
UPDATE...JAR
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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