977
FXUS63 KARX 281958
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
158 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN, NORTHEAST IA AND
SOUTHWEST WI WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LEAVING BETWEEN 4-7" FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE BAND. THERE
WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS BAND IN WEST-CENTRAL WI.
- COLD END TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND MORNING LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
REST OF THE WEEKEND: SNOW EXITS, COLD FOR SUNDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S BANDED SNOW SHOWS
A NICELY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND THROUGH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN, FAR NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWESTERN WI. BASED ON
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 0.25 TO 0.5 MILES AT PRESTON, MN AND
ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, 1-2"/HR
RATES ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BAND. SNOWFALL TOTALS
WITHIN THE 20-30DBZ BAND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR
WITH AROUND 4-7" REPORTED ACROSS FILLMORE AND HOUSTON COUNTIES.
LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR PRESTON, MN HAVE APPROACHED 9 INCHES
WHERE THE BAND HAS RESIDED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE, DRY AIR HAS REALLY HINDERED
SNOWFALL PRODUCTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE BAND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL WI
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING A SHARP CUTOFF IN
FINAL TOTALS ONCE THIS BAND IS DONE WITH. IN ANY CASE, MUCH OF
THE CAMS AGREE ON SHIFTING THIS BAND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SO THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST
RATES WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING HERE OVER THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
SNOW EXITING THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
OTHERWISE, AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DESCEND FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA, CANADA INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FOR SUNDAY WHICH WILL AID IN REINFORCING COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S. THANKFULLY WITH MINIMAL WIND
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH
AIR TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS
THE SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING US COLD ON SUNDAY SHIFTS
EAST. BEHIND THIS, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE
30S AND 40S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF AN
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT SETS UP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE AREA. OVERALL, THERMODYNAMICS IN THE GFS SOUNDINGS
SEEM VERY QUESTIONABLE REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIT RIGHT ON THE 0C ISOTHERM ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SITUATION DEPENDING
ON HOW THE FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS ULTIMATELY PAN OUT AND
WHICH SIDE OF THAT OC ISOTHERM ANY GIVEN LOCATION ENDS UP ON.
REGARDLESS, FORECAST QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT SEEM OVERLY
HIGH AS THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS LOW
TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (20-40%) FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER 0.1". ADDITIONALLY, WITH WARMER CLOUD PROCESSES
OCCURRING IN THE LOW-LEVELS, ANY SNOW THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES
PRODUCE WOULD LIKELY BE WETTER AND HEAVIER IN NATURE, LIKELY
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 10:1 OR WETTER. IN ANY CASE WITH
HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-90%) IN THE NBM FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD, WOULD THINK THAT PRECIPITATION
IS FAIRLY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, MORE JUST A
MATTER OF WHAT TYPE.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY: MILDER WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, A NOTABLE SHIFT IN
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN OCCURS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWESTERLY. CONSEQUENTLY, WARM ADVECTION WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FAIRLY NOTABLE IN
THE NBM BY LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY! HOWEVER, WITH THIS CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC
FLOW PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ROBUST SYSTEMS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH
(80-90% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE GEFS/EC/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE) FOR SEEING PERIODS OF RAINFALL LATER INTO THE WEEK
WITH EVEN SOME INSTABILITY ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH
LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) FOR AT LEAST 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN
THE EC ENSEMBLE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT LEADING TO SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD AXIS OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETS UP ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, HOWEVER IT
IS UNCLEAR IF WE REALLY TAP INTO THIS, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS,
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK, WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA,
NORTHEAST IOWA, AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE SNOW
LOOKS TO FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. IN THE HEAVIEST PORTIONS
OF THIS BAND, VISIBILITIES HAVE REDUCED TO UNDER 1/2SM AND CIGS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED INTO THE 500 TO 1000FT RANGE. AFTER THE SNOW
EXITS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING, MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING MORE TOWARDS 5000FT FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ009>011.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...CECAVA
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