617
FXUS63 KARX 011123
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
523 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S GRADUAL WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL, INTO THE 50S FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- DECREASING CONFIDENCE (20%) FOR WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING RESULTS IN PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MIDWEEK PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
LATER IN THE WEEK PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK:
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY LINGERS THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK, KEEPING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SHELTERED FROM
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH,
SOME REPRIEVE FROM COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK AS CONFIDENCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 40S INCREASES BY TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
ADAMANT FOR LOCKING IN THE 0C ISOTHERM AT 850MB OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, THERE HAS BEEN A 1-3 DEGREE WARMING TREND IN NBM
DPROG/DT SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE LOCALLY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK:
A WEAKER TREND TO THE SYNOPTIC MID LEVEL/LATITUDE CYCLONE FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DECREASES INITIAL PRECIPTIATION CHANCES FOR
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. INSTEAD OF THE
PREVIOUS RAPID EJECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
GRADUALLY DECAYING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION PERPETUATES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK UNTIL EVENTUAL ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOULD A QUICKER, MORE PHASED LOW
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 FORECAST CYCLES, AN INCREASE IN
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT INCREASED RESOLUTION AND AGREEMENT IN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AS THE PERTURBATION WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
THROUGH TODAY.
AFTER POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT, SOUTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT THROUGH MIDWEEK, RAISING THUNDER AND
HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE CURRENT FORECAST HOUR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
GRADUALLY VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KRST BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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