044
FXUS63 KARX 020514
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1114 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WHILE NEAR FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING DRIER AIR LIMIT WIDESPREAD
CONFIDENCE, HREF (02.00Z) PROBABILITIES OF 60-80% FOR
FREEZING RAIN DOT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
- GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PERPETUAL RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
WINTRY MIX TONIGHT:
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP, ATTEMPTING TO
MOISTEN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AIRMASS. EXIT
BEHAVIOR OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCALLY REMAINS AN IMPORTANT
FORECAST DETAIL AS THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL CREATE CONTENTION FOR
LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF SATURATION, POTENTIALLY CAUSING A TIGHT
GRADIENT OR DECAYING PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS IT ADVECTS EAST.
WHILE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE PACIFIC WEST
COAST GRADUALLY DECAYS, FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL WAA STRUGGLES TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS THE 0C ISOTHERM AT 925MB OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE, CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE, THE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH
SATURATION IS ABLE TO OCCUR, ICING RISK ALSO INCREASES. CURRENT
HREF CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS HIGHEST (60-80%) IN
NORTHEAST IOWA INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT, SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES & RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK:
THE GRADUAL WARM UP CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 50S AND POTENTIALLY 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A
LINGERING MEAGER BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STREWN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST PERPETUATES PRECIPITATION CHANCES PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDER INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GEFS (01.18Z) PROBABILITIES FROM
50 TO 70% FOR 0.5" OF QPF IN 24 HOURS GRAZING LOCALLY SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL
AMELIORATE THICKEST SNOW AND RAIN ON SNOW ABLATION CONCERNS BY
THEN, 15"+ FROST DEPTHS WILL HINDER ABILITY OF WATER RUN OFF
SHOULD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 02.06Z TAF PERIOD AS INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD INCREASES PROBABILITIES
(50-70%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS INITIALLY ALONG SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERAL COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION AND FZDZ/DZ
CONCERNS ALSO INCREASING. OVERALL SATURATION FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THE CURRENT, LONGER FORECAST HOUR AS
LINGERING DRY AIR WILL CONTEND THINGS LOCALLY. FURTHERMORE,
NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FZDZ AT THIS TIME; SHOULD SATURATION OCCUR.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...JAR
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