263
FXUS63 KARX 022348
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES ON PRECIPITATION TYPES TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.
- HOW FAR THE RAIN WILL EXTEND WEST OR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY?
- HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
EVEN SOME SCATTERED STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
THE 02.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN
03.03Z AND 03.06Z, AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.09Z.
WHILE TIMING LOOKS GOOD, THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. SCENARIO 1: IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM
ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS CAN PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT, THE CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE LOW AND MORE
ISOLATED. SCENARIO 2: IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP THIS EVENING
(THERE IS A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IOWA), TEMPERATURES
WOULD LIKELY COOL BELOW FREEZING AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. SCENARIO 3: IF THE MID-LEVELS CAN
SATURATE JUST A BIT MORE, THIS COULD ACTIVATE A SEEDER-FEEDER
MECHANISM AND THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE LIGHT SNOW INSTEAD
OF FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING TONIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE WARM FRONT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MORE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE SHIFTED
SOUTH AND LOWERED. THEY ARE LIKELY NOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH YET.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID-40S TO MID-50S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL
EXTEND. THE 02.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS ONLY HAVE RAIN IN SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE, THERE ARE STILL SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH A FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK. AS A RESULT,
KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE
TRACK WOULD FAVOR RAIN FOR OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. WITH MOST-UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 750 J/KG DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94, THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS.
ON FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO
LOWER 60S, ON FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-30S TO MID-40S. ON SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS PRESENT AS OF ISSUANCE TIME WITH THIS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AREAWIDE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTIES FOCUS ON A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE MOVING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z WITH
ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS TEND TO FAVOR
LONGER IFR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SO HAVE INCLUDED IFR
AFTER 08Z AT RST WHILE VALLEY SITES MAY SEE A SHORTER PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES AT ISSUANCE ARE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR MORE OF A FZDZ
RISK AT RST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 THERE BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A VERY COLD BUT STILL
LIQUID DRIZZLE. AFTER DRIZZLE DEPARTS, STRATUS WILL LIKELY
(80%) REMAIN UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TUESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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