176
FXUS63 KARX 030240
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
840 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND DRIZZLE ARE
PROBABLE (30-65%) OVERNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. WITH ODDS POINTING TOWARD LIGHT SNOW IN
AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT
FREEZING DRIZZLE, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY.
- HOW FAR THE RAIN WILL EXTEND WEST OR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY?
- HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE
EVEN SOME SCATTERED STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SUBTLE WAVE OVER THE MO RIVER IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIP IN SE SD, SW MN, AND NW IA. OVERNIGHT, THIS PRECIP WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THIS PROBABLE (30-65%) TO PERSIST INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. AS NOTED
EARLIER, RELATIVE BREAK IN CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IA EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT
FREEZING FOR MOST SPOTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS OF 8
PM WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS TO THE EAST REMAIN IN THE 33-39 RANGE.
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S, WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH MANY SHOULD STILL SNEAK ABOVE 32 AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE
JUST A TOUCH DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. ALL IN ALL,
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT NON-LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING OVERALL, AS EVIDENCED BY WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND THE
SUBTLE NATURE OF THE WAVE RESPECTIVELY, CONCERNS FOR IMPACT
FOCUS ON FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TREND ACROSS HRRR/RAP/RRFS,
WHILE SUGGESTING SURFACE WET BULBS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND THUS INTRODUCE FZDZ CONCERNS, ALSO SUGGEST DGZ
WILL BE SATURATED MUCH OF THE TIME THAT SUFFICIENT LIFT IS
OCCURRING FOR PRECIP TO FALL, LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW BEING THE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER IN THE
500-800MB LAYER WILL NEED TO BECOME MOSTLY SATURATED FOR THIS TO
PAN OUT, AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WHEN
COMPARING TO 03.00Z DVN/MPX RAOBS. THEREFORE, WHILE FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE SEEN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
RIVER AND DURING THE START OF PRECIP, THINK THAT WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS ARE DOUBTFUL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT MENTIONS OF FZDZ IN
THE FORECAST BUT REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
THE 02.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN
03.03Z AND 03.06Z, AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.09Z.
WHILE TIMING LOOKS GOOD, THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. SCENARIO 1: IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM
ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS CAN PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT, THE CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE LOW AND MORE
ISOLATED. SCENARIO 2: IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP THIS EVENING
(THERE IS A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IOWA), TEMPERATURES
WOULD LIKELY COOL BELOW FREEZING AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. SCENARIO 3: IF THE MID-LEVELS CAN
SATURATE JUST A BIT MORE, THIS COULD ACTIVATE A SEEDER-FEEDER
MECHANISM AND THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE LIGHT SNOW INSTEAD
OF FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING TONIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE WARM FRONT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MORE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE SHIFTED
SOUTH AND LOWERED. THEY ARE LIKELY NOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH YET.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID-40S TO MID-50S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FAR WEST THE RAIN WILL
EXTEND. THE 02.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS ONLY HAVE RAIN IN SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE, THERE ARE STILL SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH A FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK. AS A RESULT,
KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE
TRACK WOULD FAVOR RAIN FOR OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. WITH MOST-UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 750 J/KG DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94, THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS.
ON FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO
LOWER 60S, ON FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-30S TO MID-40S. ON SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS PRESENT AS OF ISSUANCE TIME WITH THIS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AREAWIDE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTIES FOCUS ON A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE MOVING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z WITH
ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS TEND TO FAVOR
LONGER IFR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SO HAVE INCLUDED IFR
AFTER 08Z AT RST WHILE VALLEY SITES MAY SEE A SHORTER PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES AT ISSUANCE ARE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR MORE OF A FZDZ
RISK AT RST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 THERE BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A VERY COLD BUT STILL
LIQUID DRIZZLE. AFTER DRIZZLE DEPARTS, STRATUS WILL LIKELY
(80%) REMAIN UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TUESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...FERGUSON
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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