975
FXUS63 KARX 031739
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1139 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THURSDAY BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL (15-50%) TO THE REGION BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE DRIFTLESS AREA.
- AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN STILL PLAUSIBLE (30-80%) FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A POSSIBILITY (20-30%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
RAIN LIKELY REMAINS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
BARRELS EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN IL/IN. 850MB MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING ENOUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF FOR A
SHIELD OF PRECIP TO DEVELOP WITH PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING
AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, 02.12Z TO 03.00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS/EC/NAM KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN TO OUR SOUTH/EAST.
GIVEN THIS, WAS TEMPTED TO CUT POPS FROM NBM VALUES BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, 02.12Z LREF AND THE 02.12Z CMC SUGGEST ENOUGH
SUPPORT REMAINS TO HOLD ONTO A MENTION (15-50%) OF RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCES IN FAR SW WI. IN ANY CASE, AMOUNTS DO
NOT DRAW CONCERN, AS 03.01 NBM HAS ONLY A 10% CHANCE TO REACH 1" OF
ACCUMULATION AND THIS IS LARGELY LIMITED TO GRANT COUNTY WI.
RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN.
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY WITH A
LEAD WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY MOIST ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS BEING IN PLACE - 02.12Z NAEFS PWATS
ARE ABOVE THE 99.5TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL CLIMATOLOGY. THUS, WHILE
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE, 03.01Z NBM IS BULLISH FOR THIS
FAR OUT (30-80%) THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA WILL SEE MORE THAN 1"
OF RAIN ACROSS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
ARE FAVORED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SOME REMAINING FROST IN THE
SOIL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND SOME RISES ON CREEKS AND
STREAMS. AS FOR OTHER HAZARDS, 03.00Z GFS MUCAPE RISES TO AROUND 500
J/KG FRIDAY EVENING SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WHILE NOT
A BIG POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME, CSU GEFS ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A SEVERE STORM, CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE - FOCUSING ON A
HAIL RISK - GIVEN STRONG FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO ROBUST DEEP SHEAR AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THERE WILL BE BRIEF BREAK FROM THE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRST THIS
EVENING AND THEN THEY WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KLSE WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL 04.10Z AND THEN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BOYNE
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