847
FXUS63 KARX 040005
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY (20 TO 50%), MOSTLY IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND , HOWEVER AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW 0.1".
- RAIN LIKELY FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A 30 TO 75% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN
TO FALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY: DRY EARLY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR SOME ON
THURSDAY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS GET INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW THAT IS FORMING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS INCREASES RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS WHILE ALSO CREEPING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS SUPPORT THIS
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE THEM (>90%) SHOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN
PLATTEVILLE, WI. LOOKING AT THE 00Z LREF PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, IT IS RANGING FROM 30 TO 80% ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED FOR RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 0.1" DROP OFF
GREATLY COMPARED TO THE MEASURABLE RAIN, WITH ONLY A 20 TO 40% FOR
0.1", MOSTLY ACROSS GRANT COUNTY.
FRIDAY: RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH, 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO THE 35 TO 45KT RANGE AND BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THE MOST RECENT NAEFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE
PWATS REACHING THE 99TH TO 99.5TH PERCENTILES, AROUND 1 TO 1.25".
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1" OCCURRING BY 12PM FRIDAY ARE
BETWEEN 30 AND 50% FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. MORE RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM STRENGTH, LOCATION OF THE LOW, AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET. MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS GOOD
FOLLOWING THE MORNING CONVECTION AND EVEN IN THE GFS IT ACTUALLY IS
STRONGER IN THE EVENING COMPARED TO THE MORNING. THE 12Z GFS
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF MOVING THE LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH,
WHICH IN TURN BRINGS THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER NORTH INTO MUCH OF OUR
CWA. THE 06Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND
DOES NOT BRING THE WARM SECTOR AS FAR NORTH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
NOT THAT HIGH WITH MUCAPE FOR FRIDAY REMAINS IN THE 500 TO 1000J/KG,
THERE IS DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR, 25 TO 40 KTS. AS A RESULT OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH CSU MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE
GUIDANCE AND SPC HAVE HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A 15%
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN, THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1" TO FALL
BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 6AM ARE NOW BETWEEN 50 AND 75% FOR NORTHEAST
IOWA, LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN, AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THIS AS WE GET
CLOSER.
SATURDAY- EARLY NEXT WEEK: DRY WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FROM FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S, TEMPERATURES WARM UP AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGHS GET INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH
DIPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS AS THE 00Z
LREF SHOWS A WIDESPREAD FOOTPRINT OF 55 TO 75% OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST AS, WHILE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRATUS WILL RETURN, NEAR-SURFACE
PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD FOG AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF FLIGHT
RULES REDUCTIONS. IN ANY CASE, MANY LOCATIONS WILL VERY LIKELY
(70-85%) SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIFR FAVORED WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI, PARTICULARLY IN NE IA (CCY/DEH/OLZ). HAVE THUS
CARRIED IFR AT LSE AND LIFR AT RST. THAT SAID, WHILE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION IS NOT TOTALLY OPTIMAL, OTHER INGREDIENTS SUGGEST
WE'LL ALSO NEED TO STAY COGNIZANT FOR VALLEY FOG AS WELL, SO MAY
NEED TO AMEND TOWARD A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR LSE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE BECOMING VFR AREAWIDE BY
18Z.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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