744
FXUS63 KARX 181745
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1245 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES (<20%) FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS UP. OVERALL IMPACTS EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LIMITS BARE SURFACES FOR
ICE ACCUMULATION.
- SIMILAR BOUT OF PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT MOSTLY LIQUID, EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PROBABILITIES
(<20%) FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME HIGHS NOT
EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY OR SUFFICIENTLY COOL. LOCAL
CONFIDENCE CURRENT CONSTRAINED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO WRAP UP THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. CURRENT CONFIDENCE (50%)
FOR RECORD BREAKING REMAINS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
CLOSER TO THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, NEARLY ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A SIMILAR QUICK HITTING SYSTEM, MOSTLY REALIZED AS RAIN,
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE SELECT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIMITED ZR WINDOW IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOW LEVEL WAA LIMIT TEMPORAL AND
SPATIAL CONFIDENCE FOR COOLING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, WHILE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
MENTION IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE (18.06Z),
CONFIDENCE FOR NEARLY ALL RAIN REMAINS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BELOW 0.1" EXPECTED, HIGHEST IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPTIATION HAS BEEN AN EVOLVING
FORECAST DETAIL AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT
RAINFALL COVERING THE FORECAST AREA, ALBEIT TEMPORARILY.
WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK:
AS THE SUBSEQUENT AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWS A MEAGER
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STRUNG ALONG OUR SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERAL
COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THURSDAY
MORNING, WAA QUICKLY TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AIMED AT THE UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERN EXTENT OF RETURN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE DISCERNING FACTOR FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR THE 50 DEGREE
ISOTHERM GRACING AND GRAZING SELECT WESTERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STRUNG
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WILL DETERMINE
EXTENT AND DEGREE OF WARMTH LOCALLY WITH HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A PHASE 7 MJO OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC.
CURRENT LOCAL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FRIDAY WITH 5-10 DEGREE
INTERQUARTILE RANGES FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCREASING TO 10-20 DEGREE IQR SPREAD FOR
SATURDAY FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 70S. CURRENT CONFIDENCE (50%)
KEEPS RECORD WARMTH NEARING ROCHESTER, MN CLIMATE SITE AND NOT
LA CROSSE, WI. SEE FORECAST NUMBERS IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AS THE ANOMALOUS WARM, MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, SUBSEQUENT POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MOST RECENT GFS (18.00Z) SUGGESTS CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TIED
TO A TROUGH CONNECTED TO A ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RESULTANT INCREASED MOISTURE INCREASED MOST RECENT GEFS
(17.18Z) PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01" IN 24 HOURS TO 30-80% ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HOUR LIMITS LONG TERM MODEL
AVAILABILITY TO THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE INSTEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. CURRENTLY THERE ARE MVFR TO IFR CIGS FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-94. THESE LOWERED CIGS GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THESE
LOWERED CLOUDS OCCUR, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO OCCUR
AS WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVE OVER THE SNOWPACK. REGARDLESS OF
IT IS FOG OR LOW CIGS, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
RECORD WARMTH POTENTIAL SATURDAY, MARCH 21ST, 2026:
FORECAST/RECORD HIGH
ROCHESTER, MN 69/70(1918)
LA CROSSE, WI 66/75(2022)
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...CECAVA
CLIMATE...JAR
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