399
FXUS63 KARX 191844
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
144 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15 TO 30%) FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY: WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND
A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY ARE BETWEEN 9 AND
16C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST LREF. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 70F
ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 70% FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN, AND ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY ARE
SHOWING A POTENTIAL GOOD MIXING DAY WITH GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS AT 925 MB. COMBINING THE WARMER NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION
COULD RESULT IN SOME RECORDS ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S TODAY
AND THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO LARGELY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE
ARE SOME FACTORS TO CONSIDER FOR HOW WARM WE TRULY CAN GET FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THOSE ARE THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE AMOUNT
OF SNOWPACK LEFTOVER. LOOKING AT TODAY, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
OVERACHIEVED BY A FEW DEGREES THANKS TO THAT MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IF MOST OF THE SNOWPACK MELTS TODAY AND FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES COULD OVERACHIEVE ON SATURDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MORE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY: MILD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SUNDAY AND STAYS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES, ONE ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ON
THURSDAY PROVIDING SOME LOW END PRECIPTIATION CHANCES, AROUND 15 TO
30%. WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN, TEMPERATURES LARGELY STAY NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE THAT
THESE LOWERED CIGS REACH THE I-90 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN AROUND
15KFT TO 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...CECAVA
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