842
FXUS63 KARX 202341
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
641 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM INTO SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S
FOR SOME ON SATURDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-20%) SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE (LESS THAN 30%) IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MIDDLE
AND LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
RECORD WARMTH LIKELY SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES THESE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE FAR EXCEEDED HI-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE, THANKS IN PART TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BIAS CORRECTION LIKELY NOT PICKING THIS
UP IN THE RAW GUIDANCE, FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MUCH TOO
LOW REGION-WIDE. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE
OF THE EXPECTED WARMTH WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL MEMBERS, OF BOTH
THE EC-ENS AND GEFS SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GRADUALLY SNEAK NORTHEAST. AS SURFACE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND START TO PICK UP BY TOMORROW
MORNING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SPRING INTO THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S. NBM 20.13Z PROBABILITIES SHOW A 20-30% CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEYS. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE STANDARD BLEND AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COME
TO FRUITION.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
THE STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR ZONAL TO WEAKLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL. A
WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED
BY A QUICK COLD FRONT. AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MOST PLACES, THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAVE NO MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS THE COLDER AIR
THAT COULD CAUSE MORE OF A MIX CURRENTLY LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW, PRECIP BY MID-WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE 40S
TO MID 50S. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION MID-NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WOULD RE-STRENGTHEN, PUTTING THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN MORE SOLID NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON ITS
PERIPHERY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS COULD CREATE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SOME LOW POPS ALREADY
SHOWING UP IN NBM GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT BE OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT TO THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT TERMINAL (KLSE/KRST) FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, AND INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING GUSTING
20-25KT FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMALLER SITES
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY SEE OVERNIGHT IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AND
FOG POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BRING POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD AVIATION
IMPACTS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT FRI MAR 10 2026
POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY, MARCH 21ST, 2026:
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH
ROCHESTER, MN: 76 / 70 (1918)
LA CROSSE, WI: 77 / 75 (2022)
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...JAR
CLIMATE...BARENDSE
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