036
FXUS63 KARX 211824
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
124 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-40%) TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
MAINLY RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
POTENTIAL (20-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AS MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BE PRESENT AROUND 850-
875MB. HOWEVER, THIS MOISTURE IS TRANSIENT AND NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP
IN ANY CASE, SO HAVE KEPT MENTIONS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OR LESS.
PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WILL MAINLY BE RAIN OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCATIONS
IN CENTRAL WI EARLY SUNDAY WHEN LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR INSTEAD.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOTS AT PRECIP NEXT WEEK
WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS LED TO OUR MUCH WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS MEANS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S FRONT. AS THE RIDGE BUILD AGAIN,
TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH MID 50S FAVORED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY (~15 DEGREE INTERQUARTILE
RANGES IN THE 21.13Z NBM) DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF SAID RIDGE. AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER HUDSON BAY,
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWNWARD TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, GIVEN FLOW PATTERN, MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT EJECT DOWNSTREAM AND COULD GIVE US A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
WITH ODDS FAVORING (RELATIVELY) WEDNESDAY (20%) AND THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY (20-30%). WHILE THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS STILL
LOW, PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE THAT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD AS THE UPPER WAVE KICKING OFF THIS PRECIP
LOOKS TO PACK A BIT MORE PUNCH, ALBEIT VERY LIKELY WITHOUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR CONCERNS. INDEED, 21.00Z LREF PROBABILITY TO REACH 1"
IN TOTAL PRECIP AT ANY POINT IN THE NEXT WEEK IS LESS THAN 10% AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW AT ALL IS ABOUT 20-30% IN
CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO TURN CLOCKWISE
FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO OUT OF THE NORTH. A FEW HOURS AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT AROUND 10-13Z, MVFR CLOUD DECK LIKELY
(70%) DEVELOPS WITH LOW POTENTIAL (20%) FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY, MARCH 21ST, 2026:
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH
ROCHESTER, MN: 77 / 70 (1918)
LA CROSSE, WI: 78 / 75 (2022)
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...FERGUSON
CLIMATE...FERGUSON
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