236
FXUS63 KARX 221750
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AROUND, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AHEAD
POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL LEAD TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S, WHEN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THROUGH THURSDAY, EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS FAR TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHS FAVORED TO BE AROUND 50S
IN TAYLOR COUNTY TO THE UPPER 60S IN FAR SW WI FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK, THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE,
WITH INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR HIGHS OF 10-15 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AND PARTICULARLY THURSDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT MAY SPOIL THINGS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ARRIVES. THAT SAID, NEITHER OF
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE DAYS WITH HIGHLY
EFFICIENT MIXING, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT A VAST OVER-
PERFORMANCE VS. NBM (LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY AND SATURDAY) AT
THIS TIME.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, OUR POSITION ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP US VULNERABLE TO
OCCASIONAL PRECIP FROM SHORTWAVES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME, BEST PERIOD FOR
PRECIP (35%) LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL RAIN (1"+) OR SNOW (3"+) IS VERY LOW (<5% PER 22.13Z
NBM AND 22.00Z LREF).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SLOWLY BOTH RISE IN CEILING HEIGHT AND BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
AROUND 06Z AS WELL, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO GAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT NEAR 18Z MONDAY. A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BUT THE CHANCE
FOR THESE IS VERY LOW (<10%).
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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