669
FXUS63 KARX 222316
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
616 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AROUND, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AHEAD
POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL LEAD TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S, WHEN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THROUGH THURSDAY, EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS FAR TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHS FAVORED TO BE AROUND 50S
IN TAYLOR COUNTY TO THE UPPER 60S IN FAR SW WI FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK, THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE,
WITH INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR HIGHS OF 10-15 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AND PARTICULARLY THURSDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT MAY SPOIL THINGS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ARRIVES. THAT SAID, NEITHER OF
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE DAYS WITH HIGHLY
EFFICIENT MIXING, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT A VAST OVER-
PERFORMANCE VS. NBM (LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY AND SATURDAY) AT
THIS TIME.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, OUR POSITION ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP US VULNERABLE TO
OCCASIONAL PRECIP FROM SHORTWAVES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME, BEST PERIOD FOR
PRECIP (35%) LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL RAIN (1"+) OR SNOW (3"+) IS VERY LOW (<5% PER 22.13Z
NBM AND 22.00Z LREF).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS HOLDING STRONG WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE 23.00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS TURN
OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SNOWMELT HAS LED TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE
PAST WEEK WITH THIS CONTINUING IN AREAS THAT SAW 1-2 FEET OF
SNOW A WEEK AGO, CONCENTRATED IN THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU
BASINS. THESE RISES HAVE OUTRUN BOTH DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS
AND HEFS OUTPUT WITH MINOR FLOODING ONGOING ON THE BLACK RIVER
AT BLACK RIVER FALLS. THIS MAY ALSO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM AT GALESVILLE BUT HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE THIS TAKING PLACE MORE THAN 48 HOURS
DOWN THE ROAD. AS FOR THE TREMPEALEAU, DO NOT EXPECT ARCADIA TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD AS, WHILE THE FORECAST IS WELL HIGHER THAN TOP
END HEFS OUTPUT CURRENTLY, UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A
TURNAROUND WILL VERY LIKELY (95%) OCCUR BEFORE MINOR FLOOD IS
REACHED.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...FERGUSON
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