413
FXUS63 KARX 241015
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
515 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 TO 30%) FOR THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: WARMING TREND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY TREKKING EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION, CREATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SOME MOISTURE ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER PRESENT ON
BOTH OBSERVED AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS. AFTER THIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT, A DRY FORECAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY TURNED TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AREAWIDE WITH UPPER 50S TO 60S
LOOKING LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: COLD FRONT, DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT JUST HELP TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH. PWATS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL
ALREADY BE IN THE 0.7-1.0 INCH RANGE. COMBINE THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THESE
DON'T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH POPS
CAPPED AT AROUND 30%, SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IF WE
DO SEE THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT OVERALL WITH
PROBABILITIES FROM BOTH THE 23.12 LREF AND 24.01 NBM FOR
ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.05 INCHES LESS THAN 15% OUTSIDE OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY NEAR DUBUQUE, IA. SHOULD THE FRONT MOVE A
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY, WE COULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR SOME MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (MUCAPES UP TO 300 J/KG). HOWEVER, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME OVERALL WITH ONLY A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE GEFS AND EC ENS TAKING THIS SLOWER FRONT
ROUTE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE IN THE MID 50S
TO 60S, DESPITE THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS, AS THE COOLER AIR
WILL LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND A BIT. THE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES COOLER FROM THE DAYS
BEFORE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN
AS A STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WE'LL BE
UNDER THIS HIGH'S INFLUENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER
THURSDAY DON'T LOOK TO COME UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK, DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTH (ONE THIS MORNING
AND ANOTHER ONE TONIGHT), BROKEN MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SNOWMELT HAS LED TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE
PAST WEEK DUE TO THE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW THAT OCCURRED A WEEK AGO.
THE BASINS THAT HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST RISES ARE THE BLACK AND YELLOW
RIVER BASINS. SOME GAGES HAVE REACHED OR ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH A FEW MORE HITTING ACTION STAGE. MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SO THERE WILL
NOT BE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL WATER TO ADD TO THESE BASINS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...CECAVA
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