241
FXUS63 KARX 241632
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1132 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN A ROLLER COASTER PATTERN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK: 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN LARGELY IN THE 40S
BY FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO 60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- SMALL CHANCES (20 TO 30%) FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY,
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD, OUR REGION WILL
BE LOCKED IN A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, CLIMBING THROUGH
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL HAVE ABOUT A 40 TO 70% CHANCE OF REACHING 70 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT HEADING INTO THURSDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH. THIS WILL USHER IN A BRIEF
RETURN TO COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY
THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT AHEAD
OF THURSDAY'S APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
BE CLIPPED BY SOME WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING
HOURS. NBM KEEPS CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AROUND 30% MAINLY NORTH
OF I-94, BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS WEIGHTED HIGHER DUE TO ENS
PROBABILITIES OF 60 TO 90+% NORTH OF I-90, WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON THURSDAY,
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD BUT DOESN'T REALLY
GET ORGANIZED UNTIL IT ADVANCES MORE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS
IN THE LATER AFTERNOON-EVENING TIMEFRAME. COUPLED WITH SOME DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, SMALLER RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) LOOK TO BRUSH OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
TIMEFRAME.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND BROAD RIDGING TAKES HOLD
ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR NORTH (ONE THIS MORNING
AND ANOTHER ONE TONIGHT), BROKEN MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A HANDFUL OF RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE OR ARE STILL RUNNING AT
ELEVATED LEVELS DUE TO RECENT RAPID SNOW MELT. THE BLACK RIVER
AT GALESVILLE CONTINUES TO RISE AND WILL CREST AROUND MINOR
FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH ALSO CONTINUES
TO RISE AND WILL SEE MINOR FLOODING BEGIN TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO ADD ANY
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVER BASINS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURZ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...KURZ
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