430
FXUS63 KARX 250526
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1226 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN A ROLLER COASTER PATTERN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK: 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN LARGELY IN THE 40S
BY FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO 60S AND LOW 70S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- SMALL CHANCES (20 TO 40%) FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY,
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A REGIME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD REGIME OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BECAUSE OF THIS, TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL PUSH
INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WE'LL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, INCREASING DEW POINTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVE OVERALL WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN SO
HAVE TEMPERED THIS A BIT FOR TOMORROW AS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY, QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL WORK TO COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR COOLEST ON FRIDAY IN THE POST-
FRONTAL REGIME AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER,
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PATTERN, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND OVERALL WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN START BACK ON THEIR GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY FIRMLY
BACK INTO THE 60S AND EVEN FLIRTING WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY
ON MONDAY.
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, WE'LL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL
INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE
WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALLOW FOR
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY WITH ITS PASSAGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE LARGELY THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY. IT ISN'T UNTIL AROUND THIS TIME THAT THE
ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CATCHES UP WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND REALLY HELPS TO GET THINGS MORE ORGANIZED. AS SUCH, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT WILL
BE MOST STRONGLY OVERLAPPED. THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN OUR AREA
LIKELY WON'T PROVIDE MUCH QPF WITH LREF 24.12 AND NBM 25.01
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OR MORE REMAIN
IN THE 10-25% RANGE FOR FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA (EVERYWHERE ELSE REMAINS LESS THAN 10%). MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF RAIN, IF THEY SEE
ANYTHING AT ALL. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE AREA RIVERS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING HIGHER FLOWS DUE TO THE RECENT RAPID SNOWMELT. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH
TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON STREAM-FLOW. BY 00Z FRIDAY,
ALL RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE FORECAST TURNS DRY. THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT COMING UNTIL
POTENTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC ENS ARE HINTING AT THESE CHANCES FOR PRECIP BUT DETAILS ON
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NEBULOUS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
PICTURE AS TO HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS (KLSE/KRST) AND SMALLER SITES
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FOR THE 25.06Z TAF PERIOD. SHORT
PERIOD OF LLWS POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK BEFORE STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TODAY, WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING
OF UPSTREAM PIREPS AND VWPS.
SUBSEQUENT, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A HANDFUL OF RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE OR ARE STILL RUNNING AT
ELEVATED LEVELS DUE TO RECENT RAPID SNOW MELT. THE BLACK RIVER
AT GALESVILLE CONTINUES TO RISE AND WILL CREST AROUND MINOR
FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH ALSO CONTINUES
TO RISE AND WILL SEE MINOR FLOODING BEGIN TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO ADD ANY
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVER BASINS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...KURZ
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