929
FXUS63 KARX 252326
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
626 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15 TO 30%) FOR THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES
(50 TO 75%) FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S TODAY, THEN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY, UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S FOR FRIDAY, THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F
THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE THERE BEING A SMALL SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY MORNING, THE LOWER LEVEL ARE QUITE DRY, SO PRECIPITATION IS
NOT LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IT ISN'T UNTIL THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. OUTSIDE OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, THERE ARE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15 TO 30%). IN THE OTHER TWO PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED AREAS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER, MORE TOWARDS THE
50 TO 75% RANGES. NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE THEIR BEST CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL SEE THEIR LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE LATEST
HREF HAS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.1" IN FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND A 40 TO 65% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.1" IN CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES.
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS ON FRIDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
IMPACTS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (15 TO 30%) FOR AREAS NORTH
OF I-94. AFTER FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS MORE ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERTAKING
THE ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL HELP IN BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS SHIFT AS MANY OF THE
GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD TODAY, TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THURSDAY THEN
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY,
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS BRINGING COOLER AIR THAT RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
THIS WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AS A RESULT WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WARMING US BACK UP INTO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY AND THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR SUNDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOMORROW MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO GO
PREVAILING BUT HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT KLSE FOR LATE TOMORROW
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN PROBABILITIES NEAR 30 PERCENT. SOME
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW-END VFR BY
00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING TO THE NORTH AND PICKING UP TO BETWEEN
10-20 KTS SUSTAINED BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS COULD MATERIALIZE AT THE TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A FEW RIVERS ARE STILL SEEING RISES OR ARE STILL RUNNING AT
ELEVATED LEVELS DUE TO THE RAPID SNOW MELT. CURRENTLY THE BLACK
RIVER AT GALESVILLE AND THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH ARE SEEING THESE
ELEVATED LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE SITES ARE IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
THESE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
MINIMAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...BARENDSE
HYDROLOGY...CECAVA
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