689
FXUS63 KARX 271156
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
656 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL (15-25%) CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/EAST OF I-94
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF SNOW SHOWERS DO FORM, BRIEF
IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR.
- DRY AND BREEZY FOR SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- AFTER A COOL FRIDAY, A WARMING TREND IS FAVORED THROUGH
TUESDAY. MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP (30-50%) NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 1-2" OF RAIN IF ALL DETAILS COME
TOGETHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
FRIDAY: SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94
A QUICK LITTLE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW, CLIPPING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH, WE COULD SEE A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS OUT OF THIS AS THE DGZ SATURATES. GIVEN THE DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON'S COLD FRONT,
THIS LOOKS TO LIMIT HOW MUCH COULD POTENTIALLY REACH THE GROUND.
IT'S ALSO UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT ANY
OF THIS WOULD STICK IF IT DOES REACH THE GROUND BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM DEVELOPING, THIS COULD
CREATE BRIEF, INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WOULD CAUSE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I-94 WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN DAYS PREVIOUS WITH POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SATURDAY - MONDAY: WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE WEEKEND. AS IT STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO THE NORTHWEST. 27.00 HREF SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER LEVELS LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING, THIS COULD CREATE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES WITH SUB-25 PERCENT RHS
LOOKING PLAUSIBLE. COMBINE THESE DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WE'RE LOOKING AT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE MAIN SAVING GRACE WILL BE THE FACT THAT THE LOWEST
RHS AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED SINCE THE
LOWEST RHS LOOK TO BE ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IT ALSO HELPS THAT AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. HOWEVER,
IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH MIXING OR TEMPERATURES END UP CLIMBING A
LITTLE HIGHER, WE COULD GET INTO MORE OF A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER SCENARIO. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON THEIR UPWARD
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO POTENTIALLY LOWER 70S BY MONDAY. THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO
INCREASE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER THESE NEXT TWO DAYS, DECREASING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
COMPARISON TO SATURDAY.
TUESDAY - END OF NEXT WEEK: RAIN CHANCES RETURN
THE FORECAST FOR MID NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND GETS A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING AS THE DOMINANT UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
BREAKS DOWN WITH MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE EAST. WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL BE OF SIGNIFICANCE AS PRECIPITATION LOOKS
MORE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEK.
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AS TO
HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK, CURRENTLY HAVE A BROAD
BRUSH OF POPS IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY ONWARDS. THERE
WILL CERTAINLY BE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION WITH MUCH
HIGHER PWATS WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO THE QUESTION IS MORE ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. WITH
THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
IT'S HARD TO HONE IN ON ANY DETAILS BUT SHOULD EVERYTHING LINE
UP JUST RIGHT, THIS COULD LEAD TO A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS
THE AREA (OVERALL GEFS SEEMS A BIT MORE ENTHUSED THAN THE EC
ENS). WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL GOING FORWARD AS
HOPEFULLY ENSEMBLES COME INTO A BIT MORE AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000FT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SNOWMELT DRIVEN FLOODING ON THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH
CONTINUES TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. WITHOUT ANY MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AHEAD UNTIL NEXT WEEK, THIS SHOULD MOVE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...CECAVA
HYDROLOGY...FERGUSON
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