819
FXUS63 KARX 271828
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
128 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.
- TEMPERATURES GO ON A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE 60S AND BY MONDAY ARE
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30 TO 50%) FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
TODAY-MONDAY: CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY, WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVED YESTERDAY, COOLER AIR HAS
FILTERED IN BEHIND IT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP WARM THE FORECAST AREA
UP INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY, THE 60S FOR SUNDAY, AND THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
DUE TO NO SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH AND THE WEAK ZONAL PATTERN.
FOCUSING ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
AS THIS HIGH MOVES AWAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS
PICK UP AS A RESULT. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE
RESULTED IN RED FLAG WARNINGS BEING ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-90 IN WISCONSIN DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, HOWEVER THE FUELS THERE COMPARED TO IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA ARE NOT AS PRIMED. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY,
THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN DEWPOINTS BEING LOWER, WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEING LOWER COMPARED TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW DRY WE CAN
GET DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND BRINGS
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND IF SOME OF THIS MOISTURE CAN
BE LOWERED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE (LOWERED CLOUD DECK), THEN THE AREA
WOULD NOT GET AS DRY. DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO ZONAL
AND SOUTHWESTERLY. OUR FIRST PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONTS TRANSLATES SOUTHWARD, IT BECOMES MORE OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND IN DOING SO WILL BECOME THE FOCUS ON MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY FAVORED FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THERE
WILL BE A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE THIS PART
WE ARE CONFIDENT IN, THE MUCH LESS CONFIDENT PART IS WHERE AND WHEN
A SHORTWAVE CAN HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE A GOOD AREA OF FOCUS
FOR WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE GEFS AND EPS ON INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
WEEK, THERE ARE STILL SOME MEMBERS THAT HAVE NEARLY DRY OR
COMPLETELY DRY SOLUTIONS. WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THOUGH, A SHIFT TO A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE,
JUST NEED BETTER AGREEMENT ON EXACT TIMING AFTER TUESDAY FOR WHEN
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL OCCUR. AS A RESULT OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 50% FOR
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY
INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT IN THE SUNRISE HOURS WITH SOUTH
WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTING 25-30KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
USING GOES SATELLITE, MONITORING AN MVFR CLOUD BANK IN WESTERN
MN THAT IS MOVING TOWARD KRST. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING KRST, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LOW PROBABILITY
FOR IT TO AFFECT IA/MN (20%).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO
25% RANGE AND DRIER FUELS HAVE RESULTED IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 WHERE FUELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE PRIMED THAN IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS
FOR SATURDAY, THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE
MORE WELL-MIXED WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR SATURDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
FIRE WEATHER...CECAVA
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