200
FXUS63 KARX 292318
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
618 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MONDAY - RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 9 TO 12C RANGE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND
BETWEEN 12 AND 18C ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-60S TO NEAR 80
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94, AND THE FROM THE MID-70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NBM AND THE NBM
90TH TO GENERATE THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY. MANY OF
THESE RECORDS WERE SET BACK IN 1986.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING - SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE?
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL CLIMB INTO THE
50S DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL STEEPEN THE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE 7 TO 8 C/KM RANGE. IN ADDITION,
A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY NIGHT THE 1 TO 6 KM
SHEAR WILL LENGTHEN THE HODOGRAPH. THIS HODOGRAPH IS STRAIGHT-
LINE AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE HAIL. WITH THE SOUNDINGS
SHOWING VARIABILITY ON THE CAPE THICKNESS, THE SIZE OF THE HAIL
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AS THE COLD POOLS COALESCE, A LINE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL GET. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1-INCH, SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
WEAK ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING MORE EASTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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