629
FXUS63 KARX 141055
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
555 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. SECONDARY CONCERN OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
EVENTUALLY CEASING TEMPORARILY THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/2 TO 1/4 OF A MILE IN THE WAKE
OF OUR RAINFALL YESTERDAY, HAVE ISSUED A SHORT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE WINDOW. STRATUS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL WI AND THE TWIN CITIES AREA, COULD
RESULT IN THE FOG LIFTING FROM NORTH SOUTH AND WILL ADJUST THE
ADVISORY FOOTPRINT AS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES TODAY:
AS MAIN LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, RETURN FLOW IS QUICKLY
REINVIGORATING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON EARLY MORNING
OBSERVATIONS. THE 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM ROUGHLY COLLOCATED
WITH 1" PWATS EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AIDED BY ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW CYCLOGENESIS PROGRESSING
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE INCREASES LOW PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER
INCREASES LOCAL STORM THREAT. CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR NORTHERN
EXTENT IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MONDAY, BIFURCATING THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1000+ J/KG (MAX 3000
J/KG) OF SBCAPE CONCURRENT WITH LITTLE TO NO SBCIN. THE LOW
LOSES CONFORMITY AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST, BECOMING A MEAGER
LOW LEVEL TROUGH BIFURCATING THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTANT
STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES
CAPABLE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAUSING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS PRIMARILY WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK.
STORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DISAGREE ON SUBSEQUENT STORM CHANCES WITH
MOST FREQUENT STORM SOLUTION SEEN IN MOST RECENT HRRR (14.00Z)
PERPETUATING STORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGES ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE LOCALLY LINGERING
BOUNDARY UNTIL CYCLOGENESIS AND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THIS IS THE MOST
FREQUENT OUTLIER SOLUTION, MOST OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE OF FREQUENT STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SIMILAR TO TODAY, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN DIURNAL INFLUENCE PERMITTING CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY BECOMING SURFACE BASED WHERE STORMS SET UP.
STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY:
A REPRIEVE IN STORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY CEASES
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW ENHANCES MERIDIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, RETURNING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE THE LONGER
FORECAST HOUR LIMITS OVERALL CONFIDENCE, ENHANCED CYCLOGENESIS
PERMITS INCREASED TAPPING INTO THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND
ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY, KEEPING PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
HIGH (70%+).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF AN MCW TO ISW
LINE SLOWLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH A SCT/BKN
MVFR CU DECK TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS SOUTHERN CORRIDOR AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD BRING LARGE HAIL AND IFR RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. THE
CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING WITH IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY
TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN MOST LOCALES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING WHERE STRONGEST STORMS RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES HAVE PROMPTED OPENING OF RIVER GATES
GIVEN EXPECTED ADDITIONAL DAILY PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST
OBSERVATIONS FROM MONDAY'S STORMS SEEN IN A BAND FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN OF 2"+.
THEREFORE, PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR SUBSEQUENT FLOODING WOULD
BE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STORMS PROGRESSES AS FAR NORTH TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL REACHING FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPS HEIGHTENED AWARENESS FOR
FLOODING CONCERNS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ029-
032>034.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094-095.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...SKOW
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...SKOW
HYDROLOGY...JAR
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