995
FXUS63 KARX 160459
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1159 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS RETURN TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FOR
FRIDAY WITH ALL, INCREASED INTENSITY TYPES OF HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. CONTINUE MONITORING FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULT IN NON-ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT CURRENT FORECAST HOUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
DRY THURSDAY:
A REPRIEVE IN STORM CHANCES TODAY FROM PASSING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FEEL LESS HUMID COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ALSO ALLOWS OVER SATURATED
SOILS TO RECOVER SOME FROM HEAVY, HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY:
A STOUT LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS EXCITES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY, PROGRESSING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY OF 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE SEEN IN
LOW AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BUILDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE EVENTUAL FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE LREF DPROG/DT REMAINS
MOSTLY CONSISTENT, A SLIGHTLY MORE PHASED SOLUTION TO THE LOW
HAS INCREASED INTRAENSEMBLE AGREEMENT FOR A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CONCURRENT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (GFS
15.18Z) OF 9.5C+/KM RAISE INITIAL SUPERCELL CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MESO LOW PHASES/OCCLUDES ALONG OUR
WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THEREFORE, MODEL DERIVED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETERS
ILLUMINATE INITIAL STRONGER SEVERE THREATS DURING SUPERCELLULAR
STORM MODE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE FROPA CAUSES LINEAR STORM MODE TO PROGRESS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ALL
STORM MODES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST POTENTIALLY STRONG
TORNADO THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SURFACE BASED
SUPERCELLS FORM ALONG A LIFTING BOUNDARY. TORNADOES WITHIN
LINEAR STORM MODE LATER THROUGH FRIDAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALBEIT
POTENTIALLY NOT AS STRONG. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL STORM MODES.
WINTER RESEMBLANT WEEKEND EXPECTED:
A COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, USHERING IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING
ON GROWING SEASON, CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT LOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY REQUIRE SUBSEQUENT FROST
ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING ISSUANCE FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS. UNFORTUNATELY, LOW (<15%) LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR
SHEAR AND CAPE GRAZE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AT
16.06Z TAF ISSUANCE, MOSTLY PERSISTING VFR. MVFR VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEGUN TO REACH KLSE AS IFR-LIFR PROGRESSES NORTHEAST, NORTH
OF THE SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS WILL
BE MAIN FORECAST DETAIL TO REMAIN COGNIZANT OF THROUGH THURSDAY
AS SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SOIL
TEMPERATURES, PERSISTING MORNING SHALLOW FOG CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AFTER ONGOING OVERNIGHT SCATTERED WEAK STORMS, DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY PROVIDE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO LOCAL RIVERS, ALLOWING
SOME RECOVERY IN BANK FULL. CURRENT RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
MOST OF WISCONSIN RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CRESTING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINE OF STRONG STORMS EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
INITIAL DISCRETE STORM MODE RAISES HIGHEST CONCERN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION.
CURRENT CONFIDENCE MAY AFFECT SUSCEPTIBLE RIVERS SUCH AS BLACK,
YELLOW, AND TREMPEALEAU IN WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TIME TO FULLY RECOVER. CONTINUE MONITORING
UPCOMING FORECASTS FOR LOCATION OF HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ042>044-053>055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...JAR
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