001
FXUS63 KARX 061054
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WARMING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
- THE RISK FOR NEAR FREEZING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS PEPPER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
TODAY: QUIET OVERALL
A 1022-MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY, THOUGH ITS INFLUENCE WILL STILL DRIVE TODAY'S WEATHER. WITH
800-MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C DURING PEAK HEATING, A THICKER CU DECK
IS PROGGED TO FORM BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. THE HRRR/RAP FORECAST PROFILES SHOW DEEPER SATURATION AND
POTENTIAL UPRIGHT INSTABILITY TO FUEL LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARDS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN, BUT PROFILES QUICKLY MIX OUT AS ONE APPROACHES I-94.
TODAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: WARMER, A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THE REGION SHIFTS UNDER THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING OUR BOUT OF
COLDER WEATHER. A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AND SERVES AS THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION REVOLVES
AROUND THE DEPTH OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE PASSAGE. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
MOISTURE AND QPF FOOTPRINT, WHILE THE CAMS ARE MORE RESERVED/MIXED
AND VARIABLE IN THEIR QPF COVERAGE. HAVE NUDGED UP THE POP FORECAST
FOR MORNING HOURS BUT KEPT VALUES CONTAINED AT 20-30% AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR NOW. IN EITHER CASE, THE OVERALL IMPACTS
FROM THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.
TRENDS FOR FRIDAY HAVE BEEN FOR THE HIGHER MID-LEVEL THETA-E AIRMASS
TO STAY FARTHER SOUTH, TAKING THE RISK OF SHOWERS WITH IT. THERE ARE
AN INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT KEEP THE RAIN
COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LIKELY
TURN DRY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROWS A WRINKLE INTO
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 THAT WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER FREEZE, AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE MAY
STAY TOO CLOUDY AND WARM TO HAVE A FROST. A LOOK AT SOME OF THE RAW
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE BIG UNKNOWN BEING THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL HAVE A DOMINO EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES.
THE WEEKEND: WARMER TO START, MORE RAIN CHANCES
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DOME OF COLD AIR FINALLY EXITS THE REGION, 850
MB THERMAL RIDGING WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS MEAGER OVERALL BUT
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH
ITS PASSAGE. THERE ARE STILL MANY DETAILS THAT WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT AHEAD OF THIS WITH PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. NOT SURE IF THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD. POST
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 18 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CEILINGS WILL BE
VFR, STILL EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN THE 4-6 KFT LAYER TO MOVE
IN TODAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032-041-
053>055-061.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-033-
034-042>044.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...SKOW/BARENDSE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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