169
FXUS63 KARX 062340
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WARMING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
- THE RISK FOR NEAR FREEZING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS PEPPER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
TONIGHT: QUIET AND COOL
CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DECK
OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT,
EVEN WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR WC/SW WISCONSIN,
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE MINNESOTA AND NE IOWA AS THESE AREAS
WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO COOL BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY THESE CLOUDS SO MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NOTORIOUS COLD DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD STAY
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AND NOT DROP INTO THE 20S LIKE LAST NIGHT.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: WARMER WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE OF THE LREF CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE WIDESPREAD
FOOTPRINT OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL QPF RETURN. THE HI-RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE REMAINED LESS ENTHUSED ABOUT THE OVERALL CHANCES
WITH MORE MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN. AS SUCH, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20% FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER. HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CAPPING POPS AT 20-30% GIVEN THIS LACK
OF CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH TO
EFFECTIVELY OVERCOME THE SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. IN
ANY CASE, SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS FINALLY START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S AND
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION, MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINE FRIDAY MORNING AS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR WC WISCONSIN. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF SUB
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES SIT IN THE 10-30% RANGE BUT THIS JUMPS
SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE (ENS,
GEFS, GEPS) TO 40-80%. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE CHIMNEY
REGION BUT SOME LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH COULD CERTAINLY GET
CLOSE TO FREEZING, NECESSITATING A FROST ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND IF/HOW THIS
WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
THIS WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: WARMER TO START, MORE RAIN CHANCES
AS THE DOME OF COLD AIR ALOFT FINALLY GETS SHUNTED TO THE EAST BY
THIS WEEKEND, WE'LL LIKELY SEE OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A LOBE OF 850MB THERMAL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR MOST, A PLEASANT REPRIEVE FOR THE 40S TODAY. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A WEAK
SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN WESTERN ONTARIO WILL START TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN, RESULTING IN SOME SLIGHTLY
INCREASED PWATS ACROSS THE AREA (STILL LOW BY SEASONAL STANDARDS
BUT MORE THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THIS PAST WEEK).
BECAUSE OF THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THERE'S STILL SOME SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE THE BLENDED SOLUTION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS (30-40%) CONFINED TO SW WISCONSIN AND NE IOWA. THE MORE
TIME AN AREA CAN HAVE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HELP WITH RAIN CHANCES SO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS. THESE
DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND TEMPERATURES SEASONAL FOR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IT ISN'T UNTIL TUESDAY NEXT WEEK THAT WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALSO COINCIDE WITH MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN, ALLOWING FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF 5-8 KFT CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THU MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. A
FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING ON
THURSDAY, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LOW. WINDS LESSEN
THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE S/SW AT LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ088-095-
096.
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ010-011-
029-030.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...SKOW
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