998
FXUS63 KARX 071033
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS BY SATURDAY RETURNING TO AROUND 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
- NEAR/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOCUSED
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND FRIDAY IS WANING AND ANY
IMPACTS FROM SATURDAY'S RAINFALL IS LOOKING TO BE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
TODAY/TONIGHT: WARMING TREND BEGINS, WANING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
- SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS BY SATURDAY RETURNING TO AROUND 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
- NEAR/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOCUSED
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND FRIDAY IS WANING AND ANY
IMPACTS FROM SATURDAY'S RAINFALL IS LOOKING TO BE LOW. A
DISTINCT MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS PRESENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 05Z AND WILL TRACK TO THE ESE,
EXITING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN WI DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS, BUT TRENDS IN THE CAMS HAVE BEEN FOR A DRIER PASSAGE
WHICH IS BACKED UP BY UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING
DECAYING MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELDS WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE. STILL CANNOT FULLY OUT A SPRINKLE BEFORE
13-15Z, BUT THE SIGNAL IS SO FAINT AND TRANSIENT THAT WE'VE
GONE DRY WITH THE FORECAST. RECENT TRENDS IN THE HRRR/RAP HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ANY RISK FOR THESE SPRINKLES TO BE SOUTH OF
I-90.
THERE IS A SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND SHOULD BUMP HIGHS UP TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THESE WAVES SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: WARMING, BASICALLY DRY
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION BOOSTS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY ANOTHER 5 TO
7 DEGREES OVER TODAY'S HIGHS. THE MEDIUM AND SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS
ARE ALSO TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY,
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY. THIS ENTIRE SOUTHWARD
PATTERN SHIFT DOES HAVE SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR SATURDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED 3-5 DEGREES OVER
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE IS ALSO A DRIER TREND SETTING IN FOR
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FRONT PASSAGE, BUT IF
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, THE FORECAST MAY BE SET TO DRY. REGARDLESS OF
THE POP FORECAST, QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH NEARLY ALL
MEMBERS HAVING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAIN.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: CONTINUED DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT, SKIES CLEAR OUT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES
SEASONAL FOR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT ISN'T UNTIL TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK THAT WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER MORE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE RETURN, ALLOWING FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND A SECOND WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING MID- AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ088-095-096.
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ010-011-029-
030.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...BOYNE
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