336
FXUS63 KARX 081051
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
551 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY (65 TO 71F) WITH SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY AND EARLY EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING (30%) NORTH AND EAST OF LA CROSSE.
- COOLER SUNDAY WITH MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN WISCONSIN AGAIN.
MONDAY MORNING FROST/FREEZE LOOKS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY (60-75%) AND PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS AROUND ONE-QUARTER
INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: WARMING UP, MAINLY DRY
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES TO RIPPLE WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEMS CHALLENGED TO SATURATE THE
ATMOSPHERE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MODERATE WARM ADVECTION TODAY AS 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 10C. THE WARMING WILL BE COUNTERED BY
SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS ONE IMPULSE ARRIVES LATER TODAY WITH
MAINLY HIGH-BASED, ENHANCED CUMULUS TO SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH
WEST TO EAST (4->8PM) AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. RAIN CHANCES DO
NOT SEEM HIGH ENOUGH (10-15%) WITH THE FORCING TO ADD RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS TODAY A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES...AROUND 70F.
BY LATER TONIGHT, CONSISTENT SIGNAL REMAINS THAT A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE 08.00Z CAM GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE MOST WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE TWIN CITES, WITH A CONSENSUS DIMINISHING TREND SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST AS QG FORCING SEEMS TO WANE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TO ABOUT 30% NORTH AND EAST OF LA CROSSE WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOWERING CLOUDS AND
SATURATION MOVING FROM LA CROSSE TO MEDFORD WI. GIVEN THE LOW
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, QPF TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 0.05 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
START TO PICK UP, USHERING IN A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER POST-FRONTALLY SATURDAY
AND ANOTHER 10 DEGREE DROP FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE, CHANCES FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STARTING TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 30S. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WOULD SUGGEST
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF FROST OR FREEZE EAST AND NORTH OF LA
CROSSE.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY: CONTINUED WARMING, RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. MONDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN PRODUCE
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WE'LL FINALLY START TO SEE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SURFACE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO POOL ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AROUND THE SAME TIME, A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
SHOULD BE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD CREATE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH POPS ALREADY IN THE 50-70%
RANGE FOR 06-18Z TUESDAY. DETAILS ON QPF WILL NEED TO BE IRONED
OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT OVERALL, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
PROMISING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON THEIR UPWARD
SWING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY MID-NEXT WEEK, AND
POSSIBLY 80S BY WEEK'S END.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THEM IN
THE TAFS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
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