555
FXUS63 KARX 081842
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
142 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON (10-30%). CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS IS HIGHEST
NORTH AND EAST OF LA CROSSE AND SOUTH OF I-90.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP TUESDAY (50-80%), BRINGING AROUND
1/4 INCH OF RAIN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
TONIGHT - SATURDAY: WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ALLOWING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
MEANDER THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST OF WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RECENT CAMS DEPICT SPOTTY
SPRINKLE/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW (<15%). WHILE 08.15Z
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT SATURATION COINCIDING WITH FORCING
FROM THE WAVE, THEY ALSO DEPICT AN 8KFT DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER
WHICH WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING TO HAVE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH. IF SATURATION ENDS UP A LITTLE DEEPER, SIMILAR TO
WHAT'S DEPICTED IN THE 08.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS, SOME SPRINKLES MAY
BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE BUT THINKING ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL BE REALIZED AS VIRGA.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT RAIN COMES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY FOR THOSE NORTH AND EAST OF LA CROSSE, WI AND
SOUTH OF I-90 AS ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, FORCING DECREASES AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN, SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH RECENT CAM RUNS DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN (10-30%) GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION ALONG 850HPA WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND A LOBE OF 700HPA POSITIVE VORTICITY ALOFT. OUTSIDE
OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY - MONDAY: MAINLY DRY, MORNING FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
USHERS A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS BOTH MORNINGS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST MONDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY: RAIN RETURNS AND CONTINUED WARMING
A DEEPENING 500HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS MONDAY, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE
ALREADY FAIRLY HIGH, CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 50-80% IN THE
08.13Z NBM. WHILE SOME VARIATION EXISTS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH COULD PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH RAIN IS
ULTIMATELY REALIZED, THE 08.13Z NBM MEAN SUGGESTS AMOUNTS
SHOULD END UP AROUND 0.2-0.3 INCHES WITH 10-30% TO EXCEED 0.5
INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS, AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
>0.5 INCHES, ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. 08.12Z GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, BUT THE UNFAVORABLE MORNING TIMEFRAME SHOULD REDUCE ANY
STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VARIOUS BOUTS OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH
SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN EXISTS SATURDAY (10-30%).
THOSE NORTHEAST OF KLSE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THOSE SOUTH OF I-90 ARE FAVORED
TO SEE RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING LOWERING CLOUD
HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARDS 4KFT. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS
THEN SETTLE IN FOR SATURDAY AFTER 12Z.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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