026
FXUS63 KARX 091035
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
535 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOCALLY WITH LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SUBSEQUENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY HAS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND STORM POTENTIAL AT CURRENT FORECAST
HOUR.
- WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE, PERIODS OF WARMING NEXT WEEK:
OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER POTENTIAL PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT, MAIN
FORECAST NARRATIVE WILL BE INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, SEPARATED BY SUBSEQUENT, LOCALLY
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/STORM CHANCES TUESDAY.
RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK:
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REACHING THE PACIFIC WEST COAST WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD AS LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 90TH PERCENTILE
(SPC RAOB CLIMATOLOGY AT MPX) MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 576+ DAM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. WHILE LREF CLUSTER
ANALYSIS ALL EXHIBIT THESE ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS AND ACCOMPANYING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE WEEK, ACCOMPANYING SPREAD IN
TIMING OF GLOBAL SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION AND RIDGE RIDGE ABOUNDS WITHIN
AND BETWEEN CLUSTERS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE, NBM 25TH-
75TH SPREAD PUSHES 10F-15F THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN RECORD WARMTH
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
BEFORE THEN, NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS INITIALLY PEAK TUESDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FLIRTING WITH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES PRIMARILY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN & STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY:
A STOUT PERTURBATION RIDES AND SAGS SOUTHEAST WITHIN RIDGE
APPENDAGES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY, USHERING IN LOCAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS
LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS DISAGREES ON RESULTANT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
PERTURBATION INTERACTING WITH THE RIDGE, PHASING FARTHER NORTH IN
GEFS-INFLUENCED MEMBERS WHILE BIFURCATING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
IN EPS-INFLUENCED MEMBERS. FURTHERMORE, LIMITED TEMPORAL DURATION
WEAKENS LOCAL CONFIDENCE AS LREF CLUSTERS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF 75TH
PERCENTILE 0.8" PWATS QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES. RESULTANT 25TH TO 75TH 24 HOUR
QPF VALUES VARY FROM 0.1" TO 1" WITHIN AND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL LREF
MEMBERS AND CLUSTERS. DIURNAL TIMING LIMITS LOCAL INSTABILITY IN
NEARLY ALL LREF MEMBERS AS WELL, LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN LOCAL
STORMS. SHOULD A LATER SOLUTION TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TAKE SHAPE,
DIURNALLY BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG A QUICKLY PROGRESSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE LOCAL STORM POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE LOW RAIN/SHOWER POTENTIAL AGAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SYNOPTIC LOW GRAZES A LOBE OF
POSITIVE MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES EAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
IF THEY HAPPEN TO OCCUR, THERE WILL LIKELY BE NO REDUCTION TO
VISIBILITIES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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