205
FXUS63 KARX 101732
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STORM POTENTIAL AT CURRENT FORECAST HOUR.
- WARMING THROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
RAIN POTENTIAL TUESDAY:
OTHER THAN LOW POTENTIAL (<15%) FOR LIGHT RAIN EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
AN EASTERLY EXITING LOBE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION GRAZES THE
AREA, A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK. SUBSEQUENT, WIDESPREAD,
POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION CHANCES PROGRESS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. THE RESPONSIBLE MID LEVEL WAVE
SEEN NEARING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN WEST COAST ON UPPER LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECASTED TO SAG SOUTHEAST STRADDLING APPENDAGES
OF AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INTERACTION BETWEEN BUILDING OF
THE UPSTREAM ANTECEDENT RIDGE AXIS WITH THE TROUGH CAUSES
DISCREPANCY IN SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING LOCAL
IMPACTS AS THE TROUGH ALSO PHASES AND SLOWS WHILE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EPS CONFIDENCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
IN RECENT RUNS, NOW AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA, SLIGHTLY MORE IN LINE WITH ONGOING GEFS SOLUTIONS
WHICH SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL PHASING QUICKLY LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. LIMITED IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF NEEDED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY ATTRIBUTED TO MORNING DIURNAL TIMING.
WARM END TO THE WEEK:
THE ANOMALOUS (90TH PERCENTILE SPC RAOB CLIMATOLOGY) UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, USHERING IN WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING EXACT TEMPERATURES AND TIMING AS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
MAY BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
UNTIL THEN, ANOTHER COUPLE NIGHTS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LOCALLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIELD OF
CUMULUS IN THE 5-10 KFT RANGE IS PRESENT AT ISSUANCE AND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEXT DISRUPTIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SHRA AND PERHAPS TS MAY
OCCUR.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
WIZ032-041-053>055-061.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-033-034-042>044.
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...FERGUSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page