577
FXUS63 KARX 101803
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
103 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE LAST NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A WARMING TREND SETS IN.
- A PASSING FRONT TUESDAY MORNING BRINGS WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA, BUT IMPACTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
TO BE LOW.
- WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
TONIGHT: FROST/FREEZE DETAILS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH INTO WISCONSIN BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. COUPLED WITH A DRY POLAR AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S, THE STAGE IS SET FOR
YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID-20S ARE EXPECTED IN FAVORED LOW-LYING AND BOG
LOCATIONS IN WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN--SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT--WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-30S THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED UP INTO THE 40S TO
LOW 50S, IMPACTS FROM THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE
ACUTELY FELT ON TREES VERSUS PLANTS AT THE GROUND LEVEL IN AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK.
AFTER TODAY, WE WILL HAVE ONE LAST ROUND OF POTENTIAL FROST
CONCERNS TO CONTEND WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
NOTWITHSTANDING FOR SOME LOCALES, THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR THE SEASON IF THE MEDIUM TO
LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
TUESDAY: PASSING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS, WARMER
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE/KATAFRONTAL SETUP ARRIVES FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO A
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE QUALITY IS QUESTIONABLE
AND WEAK AT BEST AND APPEARS TO BE DRIVING THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GEFS/CMC AND EPS MODELS WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS, WITH THE FORMER PAIR OF ENSEMBLES MUCH
DRIER THAN THE EPS.
GIVEN THE MODEST UPGLIDE AND 60-KT LLJ PRESENT AND HOW ANY
INCREASE IN 800-700-MB MOISTURE WOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN
UPRIGHT INSTABILITY IN THE CURRENTLY DRY SOLUTIONS, HAVE KEPT
40-70% POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE--HIGHEST NORTH OF I-90.
EITHER WAY ONE SLICES THE FORECAST, GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, QPF AMOUNTS ARE
SHAPING UP TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH THE LREF
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING OVER THAT AMOUNT LESS THAN 20-30%. SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE 925-700-MB THERMAL RIDGE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH UNTIL MID TO
LATE MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE READINGS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN FALL SLIGHTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NARROW WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR, THERE
IS NATURALLY SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
VALUES FOR THE DAY. THIS ISSUE IS MOST NOTABLE WITH SOME OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SITES THAT HAVE AS MUCH AS A 10 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NBM MAXT AND HOURLY T GRIDS OWING TO THE
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPING AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST. DID FORCE
THE NBM DIURNAL TEMPS TO MATCH THE MAXT FOR THE DAY, BUT THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST MAY NEED REFINING.
REST OF THE WEEK: WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY
THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS IN THE MID-60S ON WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO
THE MID-70S ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
EVOLUTION BECOMES LESS CERTAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES FLATTEN THE RIDGE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST
STORMS POSSIBLY DRIVING THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHWARD FOR TIMES
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NBM INTERQUARTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE
SPREAD BY THE WEEKEND IS 10-15 DEGREES WITH A 30 DEGREE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MAX AND MIN MEMBERS, REFLECTIVE OF THE WIDER RANGE
OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE OUTCOMES.
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH, DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING TRANSLATES THROUGH
THE REGION. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS THEN CREEP INTO THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE
POLAR JET, BUT THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW COULD RESULT IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
TIMING WILL BE HAMMERED OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIELD OF
CUMULUS IN THE 5-10 KFT RANGE IS PRESENT AT ISSUANCE AND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEXT DISRUPTIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR AROUND 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SHRA AND PERHAPS TS MAY
OCCUR.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
WIZ032-041-053>055-061.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-033-034-042>044.
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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