857
FXUS63 KARX 251104
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIMITED STORM CHANCES THIS MORNING PRIMARILY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY QUICKLY DECREASE AS STORM POTENTIAL
SHIFTS EAST. CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS BREAKING UP AS THEY
TRAVERSE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
- LIMITED CONFIDENCE (<20%) IN LOCAL PRECIPITATION/STORM
CHANCES ALMOST NIGHTLY WITH MORE MOIST AIR SEEMINGLY
CIRCUMNAVIGATING LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WARMEST TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DEGREE OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES REMAINS FORECAST CHALLENGE,
LOCALLY AFFECTING LOCATION OF 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THIS MORNING STORM CHANCES:
WHILE MAIN FORECAST DETAIL CONTINUES TO BE THE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, LOW STORM/PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FREQUENT THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE DECREASED LOCAL CONFIDENCE CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW, NEAR THE
WABASH RIVER VALLEY ON AREAL VWP PLOTS TONIGHT EBBING ITS PERIODIC
INFLUENCE WEST AND EAST. INITIAL STORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING EXPECTED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SEE THROUGH MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON NIGHTTIME VWPS COLLOCATED WITH AXIS OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A NARROW FILAMENT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO A WIDESPREAD PLUME ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON GOES DERIVED PWATS. AS STORMS ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS
EAST, DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND DECREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL CAUSE
A WEAKENING TREND. CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY DECREASES AS
STORM POTENTIAL ATTEMPTS TO TRAVERSE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL, LOW PRECIPITATION/STORM CHANCES:
SIMILAR HIGHER STORM CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
COLLOCATED WITH NARROW FILAMENT OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TRANSIENT QUESTIONABLE FILAMENTS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSISTED BY NOCTURNAL INVIGORATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET APPEAR TO SPLIT APPROACHING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, AGAIN
DUE TO DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
INFLUENCE.
WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK:
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LIMITED IQR SPREAD
IN MOST RECENT NBM (25.03Z) NEARING AND ABOVE 90 DEGREES TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, A SLIGHT INCREASE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUN(S).
UNFORTUNATELY THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO APPEAR
INFLUENCED BY BIAS CORRECTIONS WHEN COMPARED TO RAW MODEL INPUTS, 3-
7 DEGREES HIGHER DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCAL LOCALE, WITH MEAN BCS
ALIGNING WITH 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE RAW SOLUTIONS.
RESULTANT NBM POPULATION COMPARED TO AVAILABLE MODELS (25.03Z)
LOCALLY DEPICTS NBM AS THE 75TH, 90TH, AND 80TH PERCENTILE SOLUTION
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY, RESPECTIVELY. LEAST MODEL SPREAD
FOR WEDNESDAY AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WAA FROM ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS
BUILDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. BIAS CORRECTED MODELS TUESDAY
CAUSING A NOTICEABLE WARM TAIL WITH A 10 DEGREE 50TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD. THEREFORE, WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
(50%), DEGREE OF WARMEST TEMPERATURE (90 DEGREE ISOTHERM), REMAIN
THE FORECAST DETAIL TO REMAIN COGNIZANT OF.
PATTERN POTENTIALLY PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND:
LONG TERM GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND ACCOMPANYING CLUSTERS SUGGEST A QUASI
REX BLOCK SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
PERPETUATING SIMILAR FORECAST CONCERNS, I.E., LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOLLOW THE LIGHT RAIN THAT IS FALLING ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THESE WINDS
DECREASE THIS MORNING BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CIGS THIS MORNING STAY BETWEEN 7KFT AND 10KFT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...CECAVA
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