211
FXUS63 KARX 252340
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (10%) NORTH/WEST OF A AUSTIN MN TO
NEILLSVILLE WI LINE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING (30%) FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-90. STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SHOWERS ARE LIKELY (60%) LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAY (40%) DEVELOP NEAR THIS FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
- MID TO UPPER 80S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
FRIDAY ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS, STRONG GUSTS
NEXT 2 DAYS
17Z WV SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE IA/WI BORDER AND
WEAK CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS IN SW WI AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE
UPSTREAM OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE
PREDOMINANT WITH THESE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING BACK INTO CENTRAL IA.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GUIDANCE VALUES NORTH/WEST OF AN AUSTIN
MN TO NEILLSVILLE WI LINE DEPICT AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH
AROUND 25 J/KG OF MLCIN. GIVEN THE WAVE MOVING THIS WAY, WOULD
NORMALLY STRIVE TO ADD AT LEAST A 20% MENTIONS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EXAMINATION OF PROGGED
SOUNDINGS SHOWS, IN ADDITION TO LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE DESCRIBED
EARLIER, A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, IN LINE WITH
WV SATELLITE READINGS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
ADDITIONALLY, BEST FORCING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SOME 10S TO POP GRIDS BUT
REFRAINED FROM INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHER
RELATIVE PROBABILITY FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY RESIDE IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE MORNING SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FILLMORE COUNTY PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOP, STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE LARGE (20-30 DEGREE F)
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
EASTWARD OVER MN/WI. WHILE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO BE CAPPED DUE TO THE RIDGE ALOFT, AREAS NORTH OF I-90 MAY
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS, COMPARED TO TODAY, THERE IS A STEP
UPWARD IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS SOME UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS MAY (30-
40%) SURVIVE AND AVOID DISSIPATING DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ML
OUTLOOKS ARE POINTING TOWARD A SMALL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM -
EXAMINATION OF SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTS WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR ABOVE 3KM AND THUS A SEVERE WIND GUST
WOULD BE THE CONCERN WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
SAGGING COLD FRONT LEADS TO ADDITIONAL PRECIP
TUESDAY NIGHT, UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN ADDITIONAL UPPER IMPULSE WILL ROLL DOWNSTREAM. HAVE
THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY (60%) MENTIONS FOR PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT AND,
SHOULD THE UPPER SUPPORT APPEAR MORE PROBABLE, WILL NEED TO RAISE
POPS FURTHER IN FUTURE UPDATES. AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT STALLS IN OR
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA, ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAY (40%)
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH, HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A SHOT (40%) TO REACH 90,
ESPECIALLY IN THE DRY SANDY SOIL AREAS AROUND BLACK RIVER FALLS AND
TOMAH.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS MOST UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HAVE MOVED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF
NON-NBM CONSENSUS BLENDS, OVERALL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN 25.13Z
NBM WHICH STILL SHOWS A SEVERAL DEGREE SPLIT BETWEEN RAW AND BIAS
CORRECTED COMPONENTS. MID 80S AND MID 70S ARE FAVORED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, RESPECTIVELY.
FOR FRIDAY ONWARD, PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
EXACT VALUES ARE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN WE'LL BE BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGING AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA,
BUT 25.13Z NBM INTERQUARTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGES, WHILE LARGE AT
6-10 DEGREES, DO TEND TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EACH
DAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHILE TAF ISSUANCE SUGGESTS VFR THROUGH THE 26.00Z TAF PERIOD,
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES COULD AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES INITIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE ONGOING
LOCAL AIRMASS, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE AND EXACT
LOCATION REMAINS LOW (<20%).
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMPACTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT
KLSE HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM MEETING THRESHOLD. SHOULD SURFACE WINDS
DROP OFF, A NEAR TERM AMENDMENT TO INCLUDE LLWS AT KLSE WILL BE
WARRANTED.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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