501
FXUS63 KARX 271824
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
124 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER SHOT (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
17Z WV SATELLITE SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WI.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 60S, WOULD SEEMINGLY EXPECT A SIMILAR
OUTCOME TO YESTERDAY BUT WITH CONVECTION FAVORING OUR EAST, AWAY
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, MID LEVELS ARE DRIER AND AM THUS CONCERNED THAT UPDRAFT
ATTEMPTS MAY STRUGGLE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-50 RANGE
FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
RISK FOR A STRAY SEVERE GUST AND, WITH DEEP SHEAR JUST A TOUCH
STRONGER THAN TUESDAY AT AROUND 25 KNOTS, COULD SEE A STRAY SEVERE
HAIL REPORT ONCE AGAIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED IN EASTERN CANADA. AFTER A
POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS, COULD
GET SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
CARRY A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF TRIGGERING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LSE
WOULD BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STORM POTENTIAL SO
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 TO THE TAF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT, BECOMING A BIT
BREEZY AT RST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT RST CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...KURZ
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