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FXUS63 KARX 290527
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER TO START JUNE.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY INTO TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES, CLOSE TO THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
THIS WEEKEND
THE OMEGA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY PINCH OFF THE HIGH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE SEEN MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO AROUND 80. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND FROM THE MID-40S TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
THE OMEGA HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND THEN
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- AND UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
DEEPER MIXING. IF THIS OCCURS, THE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LIKELY TOO HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEE AN AMPLIFIED JET MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THIS QUICKLY FLATTENS THE OMEGA HIGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST-UNSTABLE CAPES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID-80S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AND WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AT
5-10KT. SOME SIGNAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH CLOUD DECK, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW (5-15% PER
THE 29.00Z HREF). ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE CONFINED TO LOW LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY BEFORE DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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