479
FXUS63 KARX 291934
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY, THEN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER ARE FAVORED TO START JUNE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE (10%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
OMEGA BLOCK REMINISCENT PATTERN IS IN PLACE CURRENTLY BUT, LUCKILY,
SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE COMING DAYS AND THUS, CANNOT RULE
OUT OCCASIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
AND REDUCES IN MAGNITUDE. THE BEST SHOT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS LOOKS
TO BE IN THOSE AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (20-50%).
HOWEVER, WHILE A LOW POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME (10% CHANCE FOR RAIN,
SUPPORTED MAINLY ONLY BY THE 29.12Z GFS), AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE MAY SNEAK INTO OUR WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND, GIVEN STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS, A MESSY STORM MODE WITH RISK FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AGAIN TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP UPWARD INTO THE MID
80S.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN COMBINED WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE SE CONUS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOTH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD AND FOR SOME SHORTWAVES TO ROLL EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND, DEPENDING ON SHEAR CHARACTERISTICS, A STRONG
STORM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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