478
FXUS63 KARX 302343
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY GIVE WAY TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE (20-50% CHANCE) FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
REST OF TODAY - SUNDAY: SEASONABLE, SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERALL A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED OMEGA RIDGING PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND WHICH HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AS WE HEAD INTO
TONIGHT, A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS BRINGING SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT, SOME OF THE CAMS
DEVELOP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERALLY NEAR THE VICINITY OF I-35
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 DEGREES OVERNIGHT SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF THUNDER OUT OF ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT
THE HREF HAS RESPECTABLE PROBABILITIES (30-70%) WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL, THINKING SOME SHOWERS
ARE FEASIBLE. AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, ADDITIONAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HREF HAVING MEDIUM PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (20-50%) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN
SPITE OF THE PROFOUND RIDGE OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 10TH TO
90TH PERCENTILE SPREAD OF THE NBM RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S, MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVEL.
THIS WEEK: SLIGHT WARMUP WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
AS WE BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, MONDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SMALL
STORM CHANCES AS A WEAK BOUNDARY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA INITIATES
STORMS INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE VALUES REACHING 750-1500
J/KG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. OVERALL THE FORCING IN THIS REGIME IS
FAIRLY QUESTIONABLE, HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN SNEAK THEIR WAY INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 900 J/KG WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.
OVERALL THOUGH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN) HAS RESPECTABLE
(50-80%) PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPTIATION IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION
SNEAKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND OTHER SEVERE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR STORMS TO POSE ANY HAIL OR WIND RISK.
OTHERWISE, THE START OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A SYNOPTIC RIDGE
AMPLIFYING YET AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK. AS A
RESULT, EXPECTING HIGHS TO WARM SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO EVEN SOME UPPER 80S COME WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FIRMLY OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY, MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED ACROSS ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES THAT THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN GOING INTO LATE WEEK
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. CONSEQUENTLY, VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AS SHOWN IN GUIDANCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION. REGARDLESS, PROBABILITIES INCREASE FAIRLY
DRAMATICALLY (50-90%) FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) DURING THIS PERIOD SO
CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY INCREASED FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION BY
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LOW
(10-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF AN MSP TO DBQ LINE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BUT IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AT AROUND 5-15KTS, STRONGEST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (30-40% CHANCE) WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MONDAY, BUT MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...SKOW
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